Brent Johnson

Lacy Hunt & Brent Johnson: The US Has Entered A New Inflationary Era That Will Prove Bad For Bonds

• Top takeaway Expects the dollar to face increasing problems going forward, but sees cyclical safe-haven episodes pulling it back given that no other economy is positioned to lead the global economy in 2026
• Suggests hyperscaler credit demand is now a meaningful driver of long-end Treasury yields and frames that as a reversal of the traditional fiscal-dominance crowding-out dynamic

Lacy Hunt has pivoted from his deflation view: capital scarcity and de-globalization now make inflation the bigger long-term risk for US bonds. Net national saving has collapsed to near zero while AI, semiconductors, grid expansion, and space exploration are driving huge capital demand — pushing real rates higher. All three Fisher equation components (real rate, expected inflation, risk premium) are heading up, with rising Treasury interest expense likely to lift the risk premium. Higher rates disproportionately burden lower-income households (Hunt argues), deepening the K-shaped economy while the top two deciles capture the gains. Hunt expects hard assets and precious metals to perform well in this regime; the dollar may weaken near-term but bounce in episodes.

DEBATE: Does The Entire World Face A "Bronze Age Type" Collapse? | Brent Johnson vs Craig Tindale

Brent Johnson and Craig Tindale debate whether the global economic system faces a Bronze Age-style collapse, analyzing structural vulnerabilities. Discussion covers the breakdown of the current global order, with specific focus on the economic trajectories of America and China. Explores the implications of the Dollar Milkshake Theory and systemic currency shifts for investors holding commodities and equities.

What Does The Post-War Future Of The US Dollar Look Like? | Brent Johnson

Brent Johnson argues the US dollar will remain dominant despite geopolitical conflicts, citing continued global demand through swap lines and the financial system's structural advantages. Global commodity markets face fragmentation as the 'Law of One Price' ends, creating localized supply shocks in food and energy that investors must navigate carefully. Investment portfolio should include equities, gold, real estate, and fixed income, with long-term bullishness on stablecoins as dollar-denominated digital assets gain traction.

Why You Should Sell Into This Rally

Brent Johnson advises investors to sell into market rallies rather than chase momentum, taking profits to build cash reserves. Raising cash during rebounds provides flexibility and downside protection against potential market corrections or increased volatility. Strategic repositioning during strength allows investors to capitalize on future opportunities when valuations become more attractive.

Strait of Hormuz: Implications on Global Supply Chain

Strait of Hormuz disruptions pose severe risks to global supply chains, with delayed impacts on energy, food, and inflation already locked in. Commodities present a strong investment opportunity as supply shocks and political instability across emerging markets drive potential price surges. Investors should hold cash as a strategic position due to Fed constraints, geopolitical fragmentation, and significant downside market risks.

DEBATE | Marc Faber vs Brent Johnson: What Comes Next After The Iran War?

Marc Faber and Brent Johnson debate the economic consequences of the US/Israeli war against Iran on the US dollar and American global hegemony. Discussion centers on whether the geopolitical conflict will lead to market stability or trigger broader economic unraveling through supply shocks and currency stress. Key investment themes include the future of the US dollar, inflation trajectories, and the potential for geopolitical fragmentation to impact global commodities.

Here's The Latest Outlook From Lacy Hunt, Ed Dowd, Lyn Alden + A Dozen Other Experts

Highlights from the Spring 2026 Thoughtful Money conference featuring 15+ expert speakers discussing macroeconomic trends and recession risks. Lacy Hunt delivered the keynote address, followed by presentations from Ed Dowd, Luke Gromen, Brent Johnson, and Lyn Alden among others. Jeff Clark provided a bonus video focused specifically on gold and silver mining stocks for resource investors.