David Jensen

Inflation Shockwave As Crack Spread Hit Record High | David Jensen

• Top takeaway Diesel is 'telling the story' on inflation: US retail diesel near $5.80/gallon (~$243/barrel) against ~$92 NYMEX crude as of early September 2026, with 80% of industrial activity (mining, farming, freight) dependent on diesel and stockpiles already drawn down
• Argues bond market trust in central banks has been 'fractured'; the 10- and 30-year yields are now leading the Fed rather than being steered by it, which he calls a sea change in the rate market
• Frames gold and silver's bull trend as a return to the 1970s 'sell bonds, buy metals' regime, with turning points in 2018 (gold) and 2020 (silver) and the run higher set to intensify
• Highlights physical-vs-paper stress: Shanghai silver premium running 10-14% (around 12%) drawing metal west-to-east into China, plus Comex palladium registered inventory of ~198,000 ounces with September deliveries standing for about one-eighth of registered vault stock
• Warns of a reallocation risk from roughly $300 trillion in financial assets into a few trillion of real goods if rates keep rising, calling this 'currency inflation' the larger threat over near-term price inflation

Surging diesel prices reveal a structural shortfall: 80% of US/Canadian industrial activity depends on diesel, and inventories are drawing down. Long-end Treasury yields are moving independently of the Fed, which Jensen reads as fractured trust in central banks. Physical demand is pulling silver eastward — Shanghai premiums have run ~12% over Western prices for roughly six months. Gold and silver price trends have re-coupled with long-end Treasury yields since 2018/2020, reversing a multi-decade decoupling. Palladium supply remains concentrated (~80% from Russia and South Africa), and a 14-year supply deficit is meeting rising hybrid-car demand.

Everything Bubble About To Burst! We're Weeks Away | David Jensen

• Top takeaway The guest argues a reset of the oil price is weeks away, saying it is easy to see oil double within 6-8 weeks of the interview and that he has no problem seeing $150 oil in the October timeframe.
• He expects the oil shock to feed into price inflation and spiking interest rates, sending bonds, stocks, and real estate much lower and rapidly unwinding the everything bubble built over four decades of loose central bank policy.
• He argues many times more promises for metal delivery exist than physical metal in the vaults, calling this the end stage of the New York-London price-fixing system, with Shanghai's steady 10-15% silver premium and emerging backwardation signaling a move to physical price setting.
• He cites about $270 trillion in global securitized assets against roughly $1 trillion or less of available physical gold and silver, arguing a small rotation out of bonds and stocks could drive metals prices much higher very quickly.
• Drawing on 1920s Weimar Germany, he expects years of sawtooth gold volatility before a rapid weeks-to-months currency unwind, sees no dominant power in a fragmented world ahead, and flags the Japanese yen as a possible first currency crisis.

The diesel crack spread (refined fuel price minus crude futures) near $72 versus a normal $20 signals a real US diesel shortage. With the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at its lowest since 1983 and near its floor, Jensen sees an oil price reset weeks away, possibly doubling prices. Shanghai silver trading about 10-15% above London and New York keeps pulling physical metal to China, a spread Jensen sees as managed. Jensen argues rate spikes from bond selling would unwind the everything bubble, pushing that capital into tiny gold and silver markets. Late-stage currency declines bring sawtooth gold volatility — Weimar gold sometimes moved over 100% in a month — then end quickly, per Jensen.

The $20,000 Gold Trade: What Smart Money Sees Coming | David Jensen

• Top takeaway David Jensen argues large December 2026 gold call options at extreme strikes like $10,000-$20,000/oz signal big players betting on a monetary reset, and he expects over the next six months a tremendous acceleration in price inflation and the repricing of gold, with financial panic possible in a 6-12 month window.
• He contends the London cash market and NYMEX futures sell hundreds of millions of ounces of gold and billions of ounces of silver in promissory notes that do not exist, creating false prices, and points to spring 2025 London delivery problems as evidence the system is already in a failure mode.
• He forecasts a messy endgame — running price inflation (CPI of 4.2% and climbing as of the interview), spiking interest rates, falling bond markets, waves of bank failures, and debt and bond revulsion — followed by an attempt to install digital currency and digital ID, countered by individuals adopting private money in gold and silver.
• On oil, he highlights that 44% of US and about 72% of Europe's base oil supply comes from the Persian Gulf, high-performance motor oils like 0W8, 0W16 and 0W20 are already disappearing from suppliers, and tanker flows out of the Gulf around 7 million barrels/day remain far below the roughly 20 million barrels/day before the attack on Iran, with Kepler estimating only about 45% of pre-war shipping volume returning.
• On preparation, he cites Jim Rogers' longstanding advice to become a farmer, urging people to move out of large urban centers toward smaller, more sustainable communities ahead of any panic rather than during one.

Large call options betting gold reaches $20,000 an ounce by December 2026 signal, in David Jensen's view, big players positioning for a monetary system reset rather than a mere price target. War-disrupted oil logistics are already biting: Persian Gulf base oil shortfalls are thinning motor oil supply, and Jensen sees embedded price inflation forcing interest rates sharply higher. Gold and silver are mispriced, he argues, because London promissory notes and futures contracts sell hundreds of millions of gold ounces and billions of silver ounces that do not exist. Jensen expects the endgame in waves — inflation shocks, spiking rates, bank failures, bond and debt revulsion — followed by either central bank digital control or private gold and silver money. His advice: treat physical metal as a lifeboat, secure an adequate amount rather than timing false paper prices, and consider more sustainable living outside large cities.

Is the Economic Endgame Coming In 6-Months? | David Jensen

David Jensen argues that structural problems in the London gold market could trigger a near-term systemic disruption within six months. Jensen claims the Bank of England faces persistent gold withdrawal delays, signaling a physical supply squeeze as metal flows East. Jensen warns that fiat currency debasement accelerates globally, making physical gold and silver ownership critical for capital preservation.

China Buying All the Silver… As America Collapses | David Jensen

Persian Gulf tensions threaten sulfur and sulfuric acid supplies, potentially reducing global copper and silver production and worsening existing silver supply deficits. Rising bond yields, inflation, and geopolitical conflicts could trigger broader instability across stock, bond, and currency markets, impacting investor portfolios. Paper silver markets like COMEX distort true supply-and-demand pricing through futures trading, making physical precious metals a safer investment.

🚨 Silver Supply Is Tightening: What the Market Is Telling Us #shorts

David Jensen highlights a widening $10/oz price gap between Shanghai and Western silver markets, signaling a major disconnect. Physical silver is flowing East as arbitrage opportunities grow, draining inventories from London and New York vaults. Ongoing inventory drawdowns in Western markets could signal a severe tightening of physical silver supply globally.

🚨 Price Discovery Is Broken: What It Means for Gold & Silver | Sprott Money

David Jensen argues that derivatives markets are distorting true price discovery for gold and silver by disconnecting physical supply and demand from asset pricing. Increased volatility and market manipulation in precious metals paper markets are having broader impacts on the global financial system, including interest rates. The current financial system is nearing a potential breaking point due to the unsustainable separation between physical real assets and their derivative pricing.

$300 Oil, $75 Silver and $4,700 Gold? David Jensen on the Future of Real Assets

Jensen forecasts extreme price targets for real assets, including $300 oil, $75 silver, and $4,700 gold, driven by supply shocks and systemic financial pressures. A growing disconnect between paper and physical markets suggests investors should prioritize physical bullion over mining shares for portfolio protection. Rising energy costs are creating a critical macroeconomic headwind that threatens global liquidity and destabilizes the broader financial system.

Oil Shock Breaking The System… Silver Could Go PARABOLIC Next | David Jensen

Global oil shock reveals dangerous disconnect between paper market prices and actual physical supply, signaling systemic financial pricing breakdown. Energy shortages threaten fertilizer production and global food supply, creating cascading inflationary pressures across worldwide agricultural markets. Gold and silver markets face similar physical supply imbalances, risking historic parabolic repricing if capital flees traditional paper assets.

Cascading Silver Price Shocks Investors | David Jensen

• Top takeaway Jensen argues the digital silver price is divorced from fundamentals — a global physical shortage — and that suppressing the price only deepens that shortage by restricting metal flow into the market
• He details the CME/COMEX velocity-logic mechanism, where sub-second triggers (as short as 1 millisecond) cause 5-second pauses that reset the dynamic circuit-breaker limits, and says the CME confirmed to him in writing that velocity-logic triggers fired during the January 30 cascade
• He points to Shanghai physical premiums above $100/oz wholesale, Indian and Chinese cash prices running $10-$15 above New York and London, and a New York cash-vs-March-futures premium of about 60 cents as independent confirmations of real physical shortage
• He warns that digital silver markets go bid-no-offer when divorced from fundamentals, and says the eventual clearing will either happen through a normal rolling repricing or via a complete market seizure
• He views the current pullback as a buying opportunity for stackers, says he has effectively given up analyzing digital prices, and directs viewers to jensendavid.substack.com for his ongoing notes

Silver's January 30 crash exposed how CME velocity-logic resets can bypass the 10% circuit breaker without triggering the expected two-minute pause. Physical silver in Shanghai trades near $100/oz while New York cash sits near $73 — a divergence pointing to a binding supply squeeze digital markets cannot reflect. When cash prices exceed futures by 60 cents, storage and insurance costs are being overcome by raw scarcity in the physical market. Refiners gravitate toward higher-purity scrap as demand outstrips throughput, restricting the flow of investment-grade silver to retail. Suppressing digital prices does not cure a shortage — it locks vaulted metal away and guarantees a sharper eventual repricing.

Shanghai Silver Surpasses $100/oz | David Jensen

• Top takeaway The guest argues silver is skyrocketing on a global shortage and relentlessly accelerating physical demand across wholesale, exchange, and retail channels, with the Shanghai benchmark around $103.35 versus US Globex ~$93 as of January 2026.
• The guest contends the London silver price-fixing scheme (since 1987) is in collapse, pointing to London silver liquidity going to zero on October 10 and only ~55 million ounces added to ~140 million ounces of non-ETF vault holdings in the last couple of months.
• The guest cites a UBS forecast of a 300 million ounce silver deficit, warning it could swell to 600–1,000 million ounces as paper contract holders exit London to chase physical delivery.
• The guest frames backwardation as 'physical is king,' noting a retail tracker showed Costco silver availability collapse from ~200 stores last week to just 7 of ~630 US stores as 2026 Silver Eagles were released.
• The guest advises against taking profits or redeploying capital out of precious metals, calling gold and silver (and possibly platinum and palladium) the only safe havens worth holding amid multi-decade currency debasement.

Silver trades at a record ~21% premium in Shanghai over the US ($103.35 vs $93), reflecting an acute global physical shortage. Backwardation in silver and Costco inventory falling from ~200 stores to 7 of 630 confirm physical demand is overwhelming paper supply. Guest argues currency debasement and UBS's 300Moz silver deficit forecast leave gold and silver as the only assets worth holding long term. Refineries running 24/7 prefer 99% silver over coin, putting 80%/90% junk silver at a deep spot discount for investors.