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David Woo

Founder | David Woo Unbound | Former Head of Global Rates & Currencies Strategy at Bank of America

"Contrarian macro calls on geopolitical risk, oil supply shocks, and commodity market mispricing"

Analyst

Biography

David Woo is an American economist and investment strategist who has built a reputation as one of the most outspoken voices on Wall Street, recognized by Bloomberg for his willingness to challenge consensus thinking. He founded David Woo Unbound, a global macro advisory firm, after a distinguished career at Bank of America where he served as Head of Global Interest Rates, Currencies, and Emerging Market Fixed Income Strategy & Economic Research. His analytical framework focuses on the intersections between economics, politics, geopolitics, and financial markets—a perspective that has proven particularly valuable for commodity investors navigating an increasingly fractured global order.

Woo has gained significant attention in the resource investment community for his contrarian geopolitical analysis, particularly his warnings that markets are catastrophically mispricing the risk of prolonged U.S.-China proxy conflicts centered in the Middle East. He has argued that oil supply disruptions from escalating tensions—with Iran specifically—represent a far greater threat than current market pricing suggests, positioning him as an important voice for energy investors. His thesis that "the market is terribly wrong" about geopolitical risk has resonated with investors who remember how slowly conventional wisdom adapted to previous supply shocks.

Beyond energy, Woo has addressed gold's role as a safe haven in the current macro environment, noting that the precious metal retains its defensive utility despite near-term headwinds from rising real yields. His macroeconomic approach to commodities—viewing them through the lens of great power competition, supply chain weaponization, and de-dollarization—provides mining and resource investors with a framework that goes beyond simple supply-demand fundamentals. He has also warned of potential regulatory crackdowns on AI and technology sectors, suggesting capital rotation dynamics that could benefit hard assets.

Prior to founding his advisory firm, Woo's career at major financial institutions gave him deep expertise in global capital flows, currency markets, and emerging market dynamics—all critical inputs for understanding commodity price movements. His willingness to make bold, specific calls about market mispricing, combined with his institutional credibility, has made him a sought-after commentator on financial media and at investment conferences. For mining stock investors, Woo's geopolitical lens offers a macro overlay that can inform timing and sector allocation decisions in resource portfolios.

Videos (2)

AI Bubble Burst = "Whole System Coming Down" | David Woo

AI Bubble Burst = "Whole System Coming Down" | David Woo

guest Aug 1, 2026
  • Top takeaway The guest argues the AI bubble is bursting because Chinese models now match US frontier performance at 40% the cost without using the most advanced chips, threatening the entire capex chain from OpenAI and Anthropic through Nvidia and TSMC.
  • Woo blames the AI capex boom for the big rise in real yields across the 2026 curve and calls AI 'the worst thing that could have happened to gold' in the short term.
  • Woo sees China as 'winning' the AI race not by stealing but through genuine innovation, citing 20-plus Chinese AI companies versus four or five in the US, and frames US consolidation around monopolists as American capitalism gone astray.
  • Woo warns that rising long-term Treasury yields could rise far enough to burst the AI bubble and 'bring the whole system down,' which he expects to ultimately be good for gold.
  • Woo notes strong, patient buying around the $4,000 gold level from what looks like a sovereign or central-bank buyer, capping the downside and giving him time to wait for a Nasdaq bear market before adding.

Gold has strong support around $4,000 likely from patient sovereign buyers who don't chase rallies, capping near-term downside. Real yields, not nominal yields, drive gold prices; AI-driven capex has lifted real yields, hurting gold near term. Tariffs and oil shocks triggered hiring slowdowns instead of broad inflation, as companies absorb costs rather than raise prices. An AI bubble burst driven by rising long-term Treasury yields could bring the whole system down — ultimately bullish for gold. Chinese AI models achieving parity without cutting-edge chips challenges the compute thesis underpinning Nvidia, Micron, and TSMC.

The Real War Is Ahead; Markets Are WRONG | David Woo

The Real War Is Ahead; Markets Are WRONG | David Woo

guest Apr 23, 2026

David Woo warns that markets are dangerously underestimating the risk of escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict, which could trigger a major global economic shock. The widely held belief that China will pressure Iran into a ceasefire resolution is flawed due to deeper, conflicting long-term strategic interests between the nations. Escalating geopolitical tensions could send oil prices sharply higher, driving up inflation and creating a favorable macroeconomic environment for gold investments.

Showing 1–2 of 2 videos

Key Quotes

"The market is trying to forget there's a war going on. I think the market is terribly wrong."

— Interview on geopolitical risk and commodity mispricing

"Markets are catastrophically mispricing the risk of a prolonged Trump-China proxy war centered in the Middle East."

— Analysis of oil supply disruption risks

"Gold remains a safe haven despite near-term pressure from rising real yields."

— Commentary on precious metals in geopolitical environment

Key Works

Independent macro advisory firm providing geopolitical and market analysis to institutional investors

In-depth interview analyzing Middle East proxy conflicts, oil supply risks, and gold's safe haven role

Analysis of Iran-related oil disruption risks and why current market pricing fails to reflect geopolitical reality

Specializations

GoldOil & EnergyGeopolitical Risk AnalysisMacroeconomicsCurrency MarketsEmerging Markets

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