Florian Grummes

Florian Grummes: Food Shortages, Inflationary Spiral & Why Gold Miners Will Benefit 'Tremendously'

• Top takeaway Grummes argues the gold bull market that began in 2001 is still intact and the correction since late January is normal, keeping a worst case near $3,500 and treating dips around and below $4,000 as buying opportunities.
• He expects mining stocks to be major beneficiaries of current gold prices because large producers have very healthy margins and cash-rich balance sheets, while warning that 20-50% pullbacks are routine when the metal corrects.
• He sees the fiat money system as an imploding Ponzi scheme that central banks will keep propping up by printing, says an inflationary mindset is now entrenched, and expects double-digit bond yields down the road.
• On energy he calls recent US Middle East policy the biggest mistake an American president has made, warns diesel shortages could disrupt supply chains and food supply, and advises stocking weeks of food and water before winter.
• For mining investors he prioritizes proven management, safe jurisdictions, and only a handful of positions, and recommends being positioned by mid-December for the typically strong mid-December-to-Q1 window after tax-loss selling.

Grummes argues central banks will print through every crisis, so the fiat system keeps debasing rather than breaking — an accelerating loss of purchasing power. Gold's long bull market stays intact; the $3,950-$4,050 support zone decides whether dips near $4,000 are buys or $3,500 comes into play. Producers earn strong margins at $4,000 gold, yet mining stocks can still drop 20-50% in corrections, with tax-loss selling pressuring shares into December. Grummes favors stocks drifting lower on shrinking volume — sellers exhausted — and wants positions set by mid-December for the miners' strong Q1 window. A proposed US diesel export ban could strain European supply chains and food supply; he advises households to stock weeks of essentials.

Florian Grummes: Rate Hikes Into an Oil Shock Tighten the Economy Further

• Top takeaway Cautioning expectations: Grummes argues that after gold's run from $1,650 to $5,600, the market is in a sideways consolidation that could still easily take about a year to reach new all-time highs, echoing the one-to-two-year pauses between major surge legs in the 2001-2011 bull market.
• He argues the Fed's 25-basis-point hike into an oil-shock-driven energy squeeze is counterproductive: with shipping costs up about 260% in recent months and the oil shock itself acting as a form of massive tightening, higher rates only add stress to stretched consumers and slow the economy further.
• As of late September 2026 he sees gold grinding sideways to slightly higher between $4,250 and $4,550, with a good chance of $5,000 by Q1 2027, and expects the secular bull market to eventually carry gold 'easily' to $10,000, maybe much higher.
• He is bullish on miners: at $4,000-$4,500 gold they make very good money, have been much stronger than gold since the summer rally and mostly held up through the pullback since January, and he expects big producers to acquire targets as they look to refill resources and reserves.
• He flags a possible early-October dip as US midterm uncertainty coincides with China's Golden Week demand lull letting paper-market selling press prices, and would treat such weakness as a buying opportunity; he also sees $150 oil as likely within six months, which he says would not necessarily be negative for gold.

Grummes expects a lengthy sideways consolidation in gold, with $5,000 possible by early 2027 still inside the range, not a breakout. He argues the latest rate hike adds stress to an already strained economy, because energy and shipping shocks are tightening the Fed cannot fix. The 1970s parallel — gold's two-year slide from $200 to $100 while oil soared — supports his $10,000 secular bull market target. Miners outperform bullion because $4,000-4,500 gold throws off cash that funds producer M&A, and October weakness would likely be a buying opportunity. He sees oil reaching $150 within six months without hurting gold, and flags Barton Gold under CEO Alex Scanlon as worth digging into.

Silver Could Hit $70 | Florian Grummes

• Top takeaway Grummes' price target for silver is $70, though he is now a bit skeptical after how fast the recent move has been
• He would prefer a slower, more sustainable, step-by-step advance that gives pullbacks and lets new buyers get on board
• He warns the rapid move likely pulled in late buyers, creating weak hands that could weigh on the market
• He remains bullish short-term and sees more upside, while watching how silver behaves into September and October

Florian Grummes keeps his $70 silver target but warns the recent move was too fast, pulling in many weak-handed late buyers. He prefers a steadier, pullback-driven climb so investors have time to build positions rather than chase. Short term he stays bullish; the next test comes in autumn, especially September and October.

Gold Is Targeting $4,500 | Florian Grummes

• Top takeaway The guest argues gold's next key target is roughly $4,500, where the 200-day moving average sits at $4,497 — a level lost in June that he expects the market to retest.
• He frames the $4,400–$4,600 zone as strong resistance, pointing to the major downtrend in place since the end of January.
• He highlights that gold just reclaimed its 50-day moving average — the first such move since mid-March, after that line had been capping the price.
• He treats the re-take of the 50-day MA as a classic old-school technical trigger, redirecting the market's focus to the 200-day MA.

Florian Grummes argues gold reclaimed its 50-day moving average last week, the first break above that line since mid-March 2026. He calls the 200-day moving average near $4,497 the next resistance level for gold. Grummes identifies a confluence of resistance between $4,400 and $4,600 from the late-January downtrend plus the 200-day MA.

Silver Is Setting Up for $500 | Florian Grummes

• Top takeaway The guest argues the secular bull market in precious metals has not topped and that silver has a technical target between $250 and $500, with the best still ahead.
• The guest expects gold to retest the 200-day moving average near $4,500 and identifies the $4,400–$4,600 zone as strong resistance into autumn 2026.
• The guest is constructive on silver producers, citing a gold-silver ratio around $43 (versus a 1980 peak of $15) and silver's role in AI and solar demand.
• After turning bearish on mining equities in late January 2026 and avoiding the sector for six to seven months, the guest has rebuilt allocation and now favors juniors and explorers.
• The guest expects an M&A wave over the next several years, with larger producers using cash flows at current gold prices to acquire juniors and developers.

Silver's breakout above $50 forms a 'cup-and-handle' (a rounded base resolving upward) targeting $250-$500, with the best of the bull still ahead. Gold's close above the 50-day moving average signals a push toward the 200-day near $4,500, with $4,400-$4,600 acting as heavy resistance. After months on the sidelines, Florian is ramping mining-equity exposure again, favoring track-record juniors in tier-one jurisdictions with near-term production paths. A gold-silver ratio still near 43 — well above the 1980 peak around 15 — keeps silver structurally undervalued if the secular bull thesis holds. Cash-flush miners are positioned for a multi-year M&A wave buying junior ounces, with sector deal activity already at its highest since 2012.