Mark Newton

The “Treasury Put” Is Here — And It Could Change The Bond Market

• Top takeaway The speaker argues a 'Treasury put' has emerged, capping 10-year yields above roughly 4.75% and the 30-year near 5.30%, beyond which the Treasury would intervene with large-scale purchases.
• He frames the recent Treasury pivot as a sharp reversal — moving within weeks from curbing duration swaps to more than doubling them — and compares the setup to 1961 rather than 2011/2012.
• He contends that if growth holds and yields stay capped, a weaker dollar could help erode the debt burden, citing the post-1946 trajectory that took debt-to-GDP from about 110% to 40% over roughly three decades.
• He expects Fed governor Warsh to lean dovish into Jackson Hole and believes the Fed will need to address creeping long rates and the term premium behind closed doors given limited public transparency.
• He calls the initial bond-buying scope a 'drop in the bucket' but notes it could double from here, and warns that rising rates alongside crude could trigger market volatility.

Treasury now swaps duration — more short-term bills funding long-bond purchases — creating a market-perceived ‘Treasury put’ that caps yields near 4.75% on the 10-year. Mark Newton sees a post-WWII replay: nominal growth above capped real yields can quietly shrink debt-to-GDP without austerity. Scott Bessent’s ‘move’ is done; if the Fed stays opaque at Jackson Hole, term premium could push long yields higher even without short-rate changes. Bond buying is too small to control the curve, but if markets believe it doubles on each yield surge, that signal alone anchors pricing.

Fall Market Swoon, Followed By An End-Of-Year Boom? | Mark Newton @Fundstrat_Direct

• Top takeaway Newton has lifted his S&P 500 year-end target to 8,000 from 7,300, but as of this late-August 2026 update he expects a choppy two-to-three months with volatility concentrated in September, not a straight rise.
• He flags three near-term headwinds: technology (especially semiconductors and memory names) still needing to consolidate, crude oil bouncing into mid-September/early October, and long-term Treasury yields pushing higher.
• With tech about 30% of the market, he says a sharp tech downturn is the single biggest tangible threat to stocks, though he does not personally expect one.
• He argues the Treasury's new bond-buying and duration swap creates a 'Treasury put' that likely keeps 10-year yields from getting far above about 4.75% (and the 30-year near 5.30%), and likens the setup to post-1946 debt reduction, when debt-to-GDP fell from about 110% to 40% over three decades.
• Tactically he would own healthcare and biotech (citing GLP-1 momentum), energy and materials, and buy dips in precious and base metals and crypto after a late-August-into-September consolidation, with technology buyable around the midterm elections.

Technical strategist Mark Newton expects a choppy S&P 500 into the November midterms, then a year-end rally toward his raised 8,000 target. Rising long-term Treasury yields and a crude oil bounce — not fundamentals — are the main near-term risks he flags for stocks. The Treasury's new short-term-bills-for-long-bonds swap creates a 'Treasury put', capping long-end yields and echoing the post-World War II debt-reduction playbook. A weaker dollar, engineered while growth holds, would lift US corporate earnings and support gold, silver, and base metals as inflation-adjusted real rates retreat. Tactically he favors healthcare, energy, and materials, advising dip-buying in metals and crypto, with technology best bought after midterm-season volatility clears.

DEBATE | Mark Newton & Jonathan Krinsky On Where The Market Is Headed For The Rest Of 2026

Newton and Krinsky expect a Q3 market pullback followed by a year-end recovery, basing their outlook on technical breadth rather than macro forecasts. Both analysts see market leadership broadening beyond semiconductors and AI into banks, REITs, and consumer sectors, signaling healthier underlying market internals. Crude oil and long-term interest rates are flagged as key technical signals to monitor for potential geopolitical shifts and shifts in market leadership.

More Downside For S&P and Gold | Mark Newton and Jimmy Connor

• Top takeaway Newton argues the S&P 500 sell-off has begun, seeing risk down to about 6,200 from around 6,600 as of the recording and a meaningful bottom in mid-April to mid-May, while keeping his year-end S&P target at 7,300.
• He expects technology and semiconductors to stay relatively weak until around October as momentum rolls over, calling July-October a better buying window for the high flyers.
• On gold he sees a short-term peak in place with downside under $3,800 (potentially $3,500-3,750 by summer) as the attractive buying zone, while keeping an intermediate-term target of $6,800-7,000 into mid-2027.
• He expects one more Bitcoin leg down toward $52,000, with a break under $65,000 opening a quick move to about $50,000 and possible yearly lows in April or mid-May, after which it becomes a decent buy-and-hold.
• He expects yields to peak within about a month (TLT attractive at 83-85) and the DXY to top out near 102-103 before rolling over, favoring diversification outside US tech into commodities and non-US markets.

Technical strategist Mark Newton expects an S&P 500 slide toward 6,200 — a 38% retracement of the move off last April's low — before a mid-April-to-mid-May bottom. Gold's three-year rally looks exhausted — the monthly RSI (a 0-100 momentum gauge) hit about 95 — and he sees 3,800 or lower into summer. Slowing central bank gold buying and ETF outflows confirm a peak; he would buy metals on summer weakness, favoring July-October seasonality. Bitcoin likely makes one more leg down toward $52,000-$50,000; a break under $65,000 would signal the capitulation that marks durable lows. Energy stocks lagging crude oil warns the war-driven rally is late; he would short crude at $110-$115 and expects lower Q4 prices.