Matt Fernley

RK Equity - Critical Mineral Market Trends: Supply Chains, Policy Shifts, and Outlook

• Top takeaway Fernley argues critical minerals are at a point of inflection after being swept up in the hyperscaler unwind, with lithium showing a sharp China inventory destock and strong ESS demand over the prior four to six weeks as of early August 2026.
• He highlights rare earths as looking oversold even though prices held up, tin as constructive, uranium as seasonally attractive into the September World Nuclear Association symposium, and aluminum as oversold because no Gulf capacity is coming online.
• On nickel, he flags a sulfur supply squeeze from the Persian Gulf that is hurting Indonesian HPAL producers — a flow-through effect of the Iran war rather than a demand issue.
• Fernley treats midstream as the real bottleneck: the US can produce lithium carbonate and hydroxide but must ship it to China for cathode processing and re-import, calling this 'missing middle' the gap policy dollars should target ahead of recycling.
• On recycling, he says rare-earth recyclers (mostly private) are advancing, battery recycling has stalled for lack of feedstock, and copper/aluminum/nickel recycling is mature — but argues government dollars would earn more in midstream than in recycling 'virtue signaling.'

The critical minerals sector is rebounding after a brutal May-July sell-off that hit lithium, rare earths, and base metals hardest. The US government announced $2.1B in new mining funding on August 7, with $1.4B going to Sila Nanotechnologies for anode and battery production. A glaring gap remains in midstream cathode processing in the US — lithium must still be shipped to China and back to make batteries domestically. Building a new mine takes 2-3 years with a feasibility study and up to 10-15 years from exploration to production in tougher jurisdictions. Investors should pick a commodity first, then target deposits on the low end of the cost curve with credible offtake partners, including trusted Chinese firms.

Nickel’s Perfect Storm, Mid East Supply Shocks & Battery Metals Outlook with Analyst Matt Fernley

Fernley argues that nickel faces a structural supply deficit driven by Indonesian production cuts, strong EV demand, and a lack of new global investment. Middle East conflicts threaten oil supply chains, but Fernley notes that weak global macroeconomic demand currently prevents sustained upward pressure on energy prices. Western policy interventions like the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act are establishing firm price floors for critical minerals, making domestic battery metals projects economically viable.

Dana Lyons & RK Equity - Chart Breakouts vs. Geopolitical Chokepoints: Metals & Critical Minerals

Dana Lyons highlights critical support and resistance levels for gold and copper miners, while analyzing broader market breadth and tech momentum. RK Equity partners expose Middle East conflict-induced sulfur shortages that are severely disrupting downstream nickel and cobalt processing. Discussion covers heavy rare earth demand trends, domestic lithium production feasibility, and potential government-backed price floors for minerals.