Michael Howell

Money Is Leaving Financial Markets

• Top takeaway Howell argues that liquidity is shifting out of financial markets into the real economy, so financial markets are tightening even though central banks are not applying the brakes.
• He says all his indicators point to a fairly strong world economy, and that as of July 2026 this strong real economy is crowding out the financial markets.
• He explains the mechanism simply: all money must be somewhere, so funds absorbed by the real economy are no longer available inside financial markets.
• He concludes that strong growth is paradoxically a drag on financial market performance rather than a support for it.

Strong global growth is draining liquidity out of financial markets into the real economy, tightening conditions without central bank action. Because all money must be somewhere, capital absorbed by the real economy is, by definition, absent from financial markets. Michael Howell argues the result is a paradox: strong growth becomes a drag on financial market performance.

Liquidity Assets Move First

• Top takeaway Howell argues that liquidity-sensitive monetary inflation hedges like gold and Bitcoin may have seen a near-term peak as of the June 2026 as-of date, even though his long-term view on them stays positive.
• He remains very long-term upbeat on gold and Bitcoin because, in his view, governments basically have to keep printing money.
• He cautions that payoffs in these assets are cyclical rather than straight lines, so investors have to remember the cycles.
• Asked whether broad indices are topping, he says only some things are and that the market should be judged through three or four lenses, starting with monetary inflation hedges.

Gold and Bitcoin move early in the liquidity cycle, so Michael Howell sees a likely near-term peak even though the long-term trend stays up. He argues governments must keep printing money over time, which supports these assets long term, but payoffs arrive in cycles rather than straight lines. Investors weighing a market top should use several lenses, because monetary inflation hedges and broad equity indices behave differently.

Economic Expert: Why Gold Will Climb To $15,000

• Top takeaway Argues that Chinese yuan debasement, not Western debasement, has been driving gold higher, making China the marginal price setter for gold, so investors should look east rather than west.
• Attributes gold's pressure as of mid-2026 to the PBOC pausing liquidity injections on March 2, 2026 amid Iran tensions, expects the injections to resume, and says PBOC repo operations are the marker to watch.
• Watches the yuan gold price for levels: support around 25,000 yuan (about $3,700) and the 30,000 yuan mark (about $4,400) as the key line in the sand.
• Projects gold could reach about $15,000 per ounce by the mid-2030s as ongoing monetary debasement tracks heavy Western and Chinese debt loads, with 8-10% monetary inflation implying gold roughly doubles every 10 years.
• Sees the world monetary system splitting into two spheres, a US Treasury-backed dollar and a gold-backed yuan, with Beijing buying gold monthly to back the currency because it lacks a deep international bond market; he remains positive on the dollar and negative on European currencies.

The guest argues China, not the Fed, is the marginal force in gold: People's Bank of China liquidity injections have driven its rise. He calls China's debt-fueled yuan debasement gold's real driver, with Chinese retail buyers treating the metal as their monetary inflation hedge. Beijing paused liquidity injections on March 2, 2026, amid Iran tensions, pressuring gold; a restart of that liquidity is the signal to watch. His key levels are yuan-based: 30,000 yuan (about $4,400) is the line in the sand, with support near 25,000 (about $3,700). Long term, he sees ongoing monetary debasement tied to Chinese and Western debt pushing gold toward $15,000 per ounce by the mid-2030s.

Why Gold Will Fall Before Its Next Massive Move

Howell argues global liquidity is rotating from financial markets into the real economy, a shift that pressures stocks, bonds, and commodities in the near term. Rising US debt servicing costs and higher bond yields strengthen the dollar, creating a deflationary headwind that pushes gold prices down before any sustained rally. Chinese capital outflows and debt dynamics are becoming the primary driver of gold demand, supporting a bullish long-term outlook despite short-term price weakness.

Here's The Latest Outlook From Lacy Hunt, Ed Dowd, Lyn Alden + A Dozen Other Experts

Highlights from the Spring 2026 Thoughtful Money conference featuring 15+ expert speakers discussing macroeconomic trends and recession risks. Lacy Hunt delivered the keynote address, followed by presentations from Ed Dowd, Luke Gromen, Brent Johnson, and Lyn Alden among others. Jeff Clark provided a bonus video focused specifically on gold and silver mining stocks for resource investors.