Shad Marquitz

Weekend Show- Precious Metals & Market Trends: Gold Bottom? Copper Strength? Oil & Market Volatility

• Top takeaway Shad argues gold and silver are building a healthy sideways base — bottoms rarely V-shape — but he wants prices back above the 50-day and 50-week moving averages before calling an uptrend.
• On silver, his 'heartbreaker metal,' he says crucial support near $54 (the old October peak area at $54.41) still holds, with $50 the line in the sand and $48 behind it; as long as those hold he expects at least a substantial rally into late summer and fall.
• He calls higher interest rates the sector's biggest weight since gold pays no yield, adds that the Middle East war has been a headwind rather than a boost, and cites Peter Boeckh's point that the bond market has already tightened policy for the Fed (2-year up 22 basis points since before the June meeting, 10-year up 19).
• On oil he prepares for a higher-for-longer $70s-$80s new normal as SPRs drain and destroyed infrastructure takes years to restore, stays bullish dividend-paying producers and oil royalties, and names nuclear power the biggest beneficiary of the oil shock.
• In critical minerals he insists the edge is downstream processing — separation, refining and magnet-making, where government money and a consolidation wave of newly integrated companies are flowing — rather than in finding it in the ground.

Gold and silver look like they are basing after a five-month slide, but a rising US dollar and higher interest rates still pressure the sector. GDX, GDXJ and SIL broke down even as metals went flat; both hosts say stocks and metals take turns leading, so read the signal cautiously. Copper holds near record highs but copper stocks (COPX) are catching up after outperforming; possible US copper tariffs add a wildcard risk. Rick Bensignor calls the gold bottom questionable: $4,036 support is holding, but weekly closes must prove themselves above $4,208 to confirm it. Bensignor says strong S&P 500 breadth reflects sector rotation out of tech into financials and healthcare; keep active trading to 10-15% of investable funds.

Joel Elconin - The Importance Of Diversification: Forced Selling in Tech, Portfolio Risk Strategies

Over-borrowed hedge funds got hit by forced selling, letting institutional buyers scoop discounted tech positions at major marks. Microsoft's surge forced ETF rebalancers to dump unrelated software and consumer names, punishing stocks that did nothing wrong. Elconin prefers trimming winners into strength and rebalancing his portfolio rather than catching falling knives during choppy recoveries. Current AI tools still cannot replace specialized human expertise, as Ford's rehiring of laid-off engineers demonstrates. Stay conservative and patient until the S&P 500 establishes a clear, sustained bid above its 50-day moving average.

TG Watkins - Tech vs. Value: Navigating Sector Rotations and Key Technical Signals

• Top takeaway He argues copper stocks have lagged the metal because their precious-metals byproduct credits have come down, framing it as a back-to-normal trade after copper names drastically outperformed on the prior run-up.
• He frames the broader market debate around a value-vs-growth rotation, pointing out that the equal-weight S&P kept hitting new highs while the Mag7-driven cap-weighted indexes lagged, until today's apparent reversal back into big tech.

AI-trade capitulation looks like a near-term bottom; Citadel absorbed a forced unwind and semis bounced off channel lows. Value-to-growth rotation may be reversing as money flows back from staples and healthcare into semiconductors and data centers. The US dollar's post-FOMC double-top breakdown removes a headwind, giving gold and silver room to test support levels. Copper price trades near highs while copper miners (FCX, SCCO, HBM) lag the metal, capping the bull case until growth returns. Traders watch the daily 50-MA and 8/21 EMA crossover to confirm whether rebounds are real trend changes or just bounces.

KER QuickTake - Gold, Silver, Copper, Oil Market Outlook Amid Fed Policy & Geopolitical Uncertainty

• Top takeaway Argues higher US interest rates are the single biggest pressure on the precious-metals sector: with cash yielding 4-5%, gold's status as a non-yielding 'pet rock' makes it harder to compete as a wealth store, and 2-year yields also drag via Fed-policy expectations.
• On silver, calls it the 'heartbreaker metal' but stays cautiously bullish above the roughly $54 support zone built from October 2025's $53.76 peak and November 2025's $54.41 peak; $50 is the line in the sand and $48 the next support, with room for a bounce into late summer and fall.
• On oil, sees $70-$80 as the new normal and stays constructive on oil stocks and dividend payers; argues the market should already be at triple digits given Iran-war supply destruction and ongoing SPR drawdowns.
• On critical minerals, argues downstream processing, from separation and manufacturing to integration with magnet and powder companies, is where the edge and the government money sit, not in drill plays, and cites recent consolidation pairing miners with downstream processors.
• Wrote a recent substack piece arguing nuclear power is the biggest beneficiary of the oil shock, citing new country commitments to expand nuclear capacity and pointing to net-gas plants as a complementary winner.

Summer doldrums and a hawkish bond market are weighing on metals; gold and silver have been flat for a month while copper holds near highs. A rising US dollar and the 10-year threatening a breakout are the real headwinds for precious metals, not just seasonal softness. Silver sits above a $54 support zone tied to last falls breakout levels; a break would open $50 and $48 as the next floors. Copper stocks keep lagging physical copper, with tariff uncertainty and a range-bound tape keeping producers and developers in a holding pattern. Oil is range-bound in the mid-$80s amid Middle East tensions; hosts expect $70 to $80 to become the new normal with spillover demand for nuclear.

Craig Hemke - Is the Bull Market Back? Technicals vs. Fundamentals in Gold

• Top takeaway The host frames the technical setup: gold and silver double-bottomed around 4100 and 61 respectively, silver is back above its 200-day moving average and gold is tagging it, and he is cautiously waiting to see whether the bounce makes a higher high.
• He weighs charts most heavily for the near term but argues the debt and inflation fundamentals are what keep investors committed to the sector for the long haul.

Gold and silver double-bottomed near $4,100 and $61, reclaimed their 200-day moving averages, and are showing follow-through that supports a short-term bullish view. Craig Hemke argues technicals matter near-term, but the runaway growth of US debt (a $293 billion May deficit) is the enduring driver pushing gold higher. The US Dollar Index has traded sideways between 98 and 100 for over a year; a break below 98 toward 96 would act as a strong tailwind for metals. Fed chair nominee Warsh is unlikely to echo Volcker; the post-WWII playbook of yield curve control and negative real rates fits the debt-reduction need better. Even a sideways year for gold fits history: long-run gains average 9-10% annually in major currencies, and fiat devaluation math points to higher prices within five years.

KER Market QuickTake - Post-Conference Chaos: Analyzing the Massive Gold & Silver Reversal

• Top takeaway Shad calls the Jan 30 reversal a historic dollar-terms drawdown — silver down ~31% on the close (over 34% intraday) and gold down ~9% close (11% intraday) — with platinum, copper, and palladium all selling off together and leaving the sector with a "bad hangover after the party."
• He says the bull-case momentum is broken for now: generalists (Chandler, Lyons, Watkins) have largely stepped aside, silver acted like a meme stock on the way up, and overbought indicators were reset in a day and a half, turning the tape neutral rather than outright bearish.
• Shad argues a rotation out of precious metals and into copper, lithium, uranium, rare earths, and oil/gas is the dominant theme heard at VRIC and the Metals Investor Forum, and confirms he has personally rotated some precious-metals winnings into uranium and energy stocks.
• He distinguishes trader mode from investor mode: investors can sit tight because the fiat, debt, and store-of-value thesis is unchanged, while traders should expect whipsaw and focus on names with near-term catalysts rather than passive junior runs.
• Shad admits he trimmed about a half dozen silver stocks before VRIC as silver ran to ~$117, citing concern that the conference euphoria and vertical price action looked like a blow-off top — a stance vindicated by the Friday crash.

Silver's 30%+ single-day drop on Jan 30, 2026 reset momentum after the metal briefly traded above $100 and gold approached $5,000. The hosts argue the rally showed blow-off-top traits — standing-room-only Vancouver conferences, returning family offices, and chat-group FOMO. Investors are rotating precious-metals profits into copper, lithium, uranium, and oil-and-gas; copper developers and energy equities held up best. The hosts cite U.S. critical-minerals moves — Project Vault ($12B) and USA Rare Earth's $1.8B deal — as pulling generalist investors back into resource equities.