Stephanie Pomboy

Stephanie Pomboy: The Higher Yields Go, The Higher The Odds The Market Cracks

Pomboy argues households raiding investment accounts to pay bills signal consumer distress like the pre-GFC housing bubble, not strength. Bond yields keep rising yet equities keep setting records; she hears deafening 1987 echoes and expects the market to crack under higher rates. Credit is cracking first: triple-C spreads top 1,000 basis points (deep-junk borrowing stress) and Oracle sits a notch above junk. She expects a sharp risk-off break rather than a slow slide, followed by a slower-than-expected Fed rescue and exploding deficits. The pair counsel matching portfolio risk to required returns and favor hard assets like gold as post-rescue inflation returns.

Stephanie Pomboy: Has The Grand Game Just Changed?

• Top takeaway Pomboy argues we are eliminating the Fed put under Warsh and compares his hawkish stance to Greenspan's 1986 setup, warning that unlearning four decades of Pavlovian Fed support will require repeated market shocks without dovish relief
• She frames financial crises as occurring at successively lower yield levels as leverage built up over decades, and points to the largest wave of corporate bankruptcies since the global financial crisis plus private-credit haircuts as evidence of hidden stress under 5%+ long-end yields
• She credits AI capex, the reshoring/manufacturing boom, and interest income flowing to older bondholders as the three forces currently cushioning the economy from higher rates, while warning AI capex could reverse if expected returns disappoint
• She calls Bessent's yen intervention a 'reckless gambit' certain to fail, invoking the Soros-Bank-of-England lesson that a central bank cannot push its currency higher indefinitely against fundamentals
• She characterizes Bessent's roughly $1 trillion TGA buyback threat as theater to spark a short-covering rally, and proposes revaluing the US gold reserve from $42/oz to market price as a way to unlock real sustainable firepower

Kevin Warsh's 'non-interventionary' Fed may be ending the four-decade 'Fed put,' with Treasury Secretary Bessent stepping in as the new market intervener. The 30-year yield near 5.2% is the highest in roughly two decades, and rising Treasury supply is squeezing leveraged corporate borrowers. America's Venezuela oil lease could lock in decades of cheaper fuel long term, but the supply impact is likely a decade away. Japan's rising yields threaten the yen carry trade, a major funding source for leveraged bets across global markets including AI hyperscalers. AI capex, reshoring manufacturing, and bond income are currently cushioning the economy from the gravitational pull of higher rates.

The AI Earnings Illusion: Is AI’s Explosive Growth Built On ‘Fake Revenue’?

• Top takeaway The guest argues that mark-to-market gains on stakes in AI startups like Anthropic inflate hyperscaler headline earnings, with about 12 of the ~20 percentage points of S&P Q1 earnings growth coming from this accounting item.
• A looming depreciation wave from heavy AI infrastructure spending (data centers) will further pressure long-term hyperscaler earnings.
• She highlights that roughly 12 S&P 500 companies — the cash-rich hyperscalers — are now free cash flow negative, masking weakness across the broader index.
• Rising interest costs from widening hyperscaler debt spreads are another underappreciated headwind on top of the mark-to-market distortion.

Mark-to-market gains on private AI stakes may be inflating reported earnings for hyperscalers like Amazon and Alphabet. Amazon's roughly $30 billion quarterly earnings included about $16 billion in paper gains from its Anthropic position. Massive AI capex will spread across future depreciation, potentially making hyperscaler valuations look far more expensive. Hyperscaler free cash flow is turning negative as debt issuance rises and borrowing costs climb on overinvestment concerns. S&P 500 first-quarter earnings growth near 20% may mask underlying growth closer to 8% after mark-to-market effects.

Stephanie Pomboy: Rising Bond Yields Are EVERYONE'S Problem

• Top takeaway Stephanie's top call: higher-for-longer rates are here to stay, because AI-capex borrowing is crowding out a Treasury that must roll $10 trillion this year — with Bank of Japan selling adding pressure on the long end.
• She contends hyperscaler earnings are low quality — about half of Amazon's Q1 profit was Anthropic mark-to-market paper gains — while free cash flow has gone negative and buybacks have given way to net stock issuance.
• She sees de-globalization as a secular force pushing inflation and rates higher for years, siphoning the economy's growing share of liquidity away from financial assets and ending easy dartboard-style stock wins.
• She stays a commodity bull: with stocks and bonds being issued hand over fist, hard assets that cannot be printed — energy and copper included, which also hedge the AI build-out — are the better relative bet.
• She expects a pension bailout once the roughly $4 trillion underfunding meets a bear market and sees the Fed's balance sheet possibly exceeding $15 trillion; her own portfolio was unchanged as of early August 2026 — heavier energy, waiting on gold, dry powder in T-bills.

Higher-for-longer rates look structural: record Treasury supply, resurgent corporate borrowing, and Bank of Japan selling all pressure long-end yields regardless of the Fed. Pomboy argues hyperscaler earnings flatter to deceive: mark-to-market gains (paper profits on unsold stakes) and coming depreciation inflate reported profits. Buybacks have stopped and companies are net stock issuers, while private credit demand now rivals federal borrowing — a capital supply test for markets. Pomboy sees a ~$4 trillion pension shortfall and likely bailouts that would expand the Fed balance sheet and flood the system with new dollars. She expects commodities, energy, and copper to outperform financial assets as deglobalization and inflation siphon liquidity toward hard assets with fixed supply.

The Energy Bull Market Is Just Getting Started

• Top takeaway Remains very bullish energy as of July 2026: with oil prices normalizing after the Iran-driven spike, she views the current pullback as a buying opportunity and says she will likely add to her exposure.
• Roots the bull case in structural demand from the AI-related capex boom, which requires a large amount of energy to power.
• Sees a secular rotation from paper to hard assets, already visible among central banks and sophisticated investors, driven by the fiscal situation in the US and other G7 nations.
• Argues strategic reserves were heavily drained during the price spike — the US SPR is back at its post-COVID lows — and rebuilding will likely wait until after the US midterms, creating a new source of demand.
• Expects countries that lacked reserves (Australia, India, Japan) to start building stockpiles, while Norway has announced it will withhold oil exports to refill its own, tightening available supply.

Strategic petroleum reserves (SPR — government emergency oil stockpiles) were drained in the recent crisis and must be rebuilt, Pomboy argues, adding oil demand. She expects countries without reserves — Australia, India, Japan — to build stockpiles, and Norway to withhold oil exports to rebuild its own. The energy bull case rests on AI data-center power demand and a rotation from paper into hard assets, not geopolitics. Pomboy calls the oil price pullback a buying opportunity, planning to add exposure to both the commodity and the producers.

Things To Fall Apart After The Mid-Terms? | Stephanie Pomboy

• Top takeaway The guest's headline call: nothing material breaks before the November 2026 midterms, but credit cracks are most likely any time after, as oil moves back up onto consumers already struggling to pay bills.
• She worries most about the top of the K: markets priced for perfection on AI and interest rates will meet disappointment, and a risk-off shock there — including housing — ricochets into layoffs and credit quality at the bottom.
• She argues the balance sheet, not the funds rate, will be the Fed's real tool of accommodation, setting up a 180-degree disagreement with Kevin Warsh's purported plan to cut rates while shrinking it.
• She is more concerned about yields rising from competition for capital and credit stress than about disinflation from lower oil, which she expects to edge higher from around $65-70 for the next several years.
• She is holding precious metals through the roughly 25% pullback as a dip in a long-term bull market, and plans to add energy exposure plus rare earths and other strategic resources, viewing a global resources cold war as putting a bid under commodities.

Pomboy expects contained credit stress until after the November midterms, with consumer strain and rising oil exposing cracks any time after. She argues the funds rate is now irrelevant, with the Fed balance sheet serving as the true tool of monetary accommodation. Global strategic petroleum reserve rebuilding (emergency oil stockpiles) plus central bank gold repurchase should put a durable bid under energy and metals. The AI trade has narrowed into semiconductors while hyperscalers burn free cash flow, shifting from buyback buyers to net issuers and borrowers. Pomboy is adding energy on the pullback, eyeing rare earths and strategic resources, and held her precious metals through a 25% drawdown.

🚨 Stephanie Pomboy Warns on Rate Cuts & Debt | Sprott Money #shorts

Stephanie Pomboy warns that Fed rate cuts primarily benefit government borrowing costs rather than providing relief to average consumers or businesses. Treasury market instability is highlighted as a significant macroeconomic risk that could have cascading effects on the broader financial system. Longer-term borrowing costs are expected to remain elevated for households and businesses despite potential reductions in the federal funds rate.

🚨 Stephanie Pomboy: Why Interest Rates & Inflation Could Stay Higher for Longer | Sprott Money

Deglobalization is reversing decades of lower inflation and interest rates, creating a structural shift in the broader financial system. Funding U.S. deficits will become increasingly difficult as global trade slows, pressuring the broader financial system. Persistent inflation and higher interest rates will structurally support long-term investment demand for hard assets like gold.

The Real Reason Gold Has Massive Upside and Inflation Isn’t Going Away | Stephanie Pomboy

Stephanie Pomboy argues persistent inflation and mounting global debt create a highly supportive macroeconomic environment for gold and silver prices. The discussion highlights potential Federal Reserve policy shifts, including yield-curve control, which could significantly debase fiat currencies and boost hard assets. A transition in Fed leadership and ongoing bond market stress are identified as key catalysts driving investors toward precious metals for wealth protection.

Stephanie Pomboy: Just How Screwed Are We?

Rising bond yields threaten to severely impact stocks, bonds, and real estate, potentially bringing the broader economy to its knees. Kevin Warsh is positioned as a hawkish potential Fed Chair whose strict 'price rule' approach may intentionally allow current asset bubbles to deflate. Investors should consider defensive positioning in gold miners and energy, as extreme market concentration in AI stocks signals growing systemic risk.

Stephanie Pomboy: Iran War Creating A Global Scramble For Hard Assets?

Geopolitical tensions from the Iran war are driving a global scramble for hard assets, creating significant inflationary pressures. Stephanie Pomboy reinforces her bullish stance on commodities, citing the conflict as a major catalyst for resource market outperformance. Investors should consider increasing exposure to physical assets and commodity-related equities as a hedge against escalating global instability.

Here's The Latest Outlook From Lacy Hunt, Ed Dowd, Lyn Alden + A Dozen Other Experts

Highlights from the Spring 2026 Thoughtful Money conference featuring 15+ expert speakers discussing macroeconomic trends and recession risks. Lacy Hunt delivered the keynote address, followed by presentations from Ed Dowd, Luke Gromen, Brent Johnson, and Lyn Alden among others. Jeff Clark provided a bonus video focused specifically on gold and silver mining stocks for resource investors.

Stephanie Pomboy: Expect GDP To Run Hot...Until Inflation Spikes Or The Markets Plunge

Administration policies will likely push GDP growth higher into midterms, creating a potential sugar rush for the broader economy. Hot GDP risks sparking significant inflation, which could trigger bond vigilantes to push yields higher and rattle financial markets. A severe stock market correction remains the primary threat to economic growth, as stable markets currently sustain consumer spending.