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$200-$300 Silver Amid Supply Brick Wall | Ed Steer

Liberty and Finance Jan 29, 2026

Summary

Ed Steer argues silver mining shares are suppressed to a 1:1 ratio with physical silver, breaking the historical 2-3x leverage pattern.

The Global X Silver Miners ETF-to-silver ratio collapsed from 1.58x in mid-September 2025 to 1:1 by January 28, 2026.

ETFs and mutual funds shipped 37.7 million ounces of silver in four weeks; COMEX alone shipped 30+ million ounces since January 1.

SLV's reported short position stands at 62.49 million ounces owed, with no physical silver backing the shorted shares.

Bank of Montreal's bullish scenario projects gold at $8,650 and silver at $220 by 2027.

Rick Rule's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Steer reports that Rick Rule recently sold a majority of his physical silver and rotated capital into mining shares to capture the usual end-of-bull-market outperformance — but Rule is currently 'sitting on a losing trade' because miner shares have been suppressed since mid-September.
  • Steer adds that Rule had not previously believed precious-metals prices were being managed, and only acknowledged active suppression after seeing Ed's SIL-vs-silver chart two months ago.

Ed Steer's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Steer argues that silver and gold miners are being actively suppressed — the silver-miners/silver ratio has collapsed from 1.58x in mid-September to 1:1, with silver miners now at 0.72x and gold miners at 1.46x, far below the 2-3x multiple typical of a bull market.
  • He points to extreme exchange and ETF outflows as evidence of physical scarcity: 37.7M ounces left global ETFs in four weeks, COMEX shipped 30M+ ounces YTD, and SLV carries a 62.49M-ounce short position with no backing metal.
  • Steer expects a discontinuous upside 'brick wall' event that could push silver to $150–$300/oz, citing a Bank of Montreal scenario projecting silver at $220 by 2027.
  • Despite the suppression thesis, Steer is 'all in' on both physical metal and miners and tells value investors to split capital evenly, on the view that miners should trade 2-3x current levels once suppression breaks.