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6 Mining Stocks Our Viewers Asked Us About This Week | Sep 28th - Oct 2nd

The Deep Dive Oct 2, 2026 18:42

Summary

A Panamanian study recommends an orderly closure of Cobre Panama (a mine that produced about 1% of global copper), narrowing First Quantum's restart path.

Gold producers command roughly $2 to $2.5 billion of market cap per 100,000 annual ounces, and Orezone Gold trades far below that benchmark.

G3 Goldfields' $57 million market cap holds $47 million cash, so investors pay about $10 million for the team, land, and contingent value right.

US debt past $40 trillion with a quarter of tax receipts funding interest strengthens the case for precious metals; watch the 10-year yield's 5% level.

Silver Tiger's open pit is mostly a gold mine despite the silver label, and Santacruz Silver's discount looks too heavy given consistent execution.

Key points on G Mining Ventures

  • The host cites G Mining's roughly $3 billion payment for the OCO district — found by the team that spun out G3 Goldfields — as the benchmark that makes G3's valuation interesting.

Key points on Orezone Gold Corp

  • The host calls Orezone one of his standouts from Beaver Creek and argues the valuation gap is enormous: at roughly 350,000 ounces of potential annual production, Sean Ruzin's Osisko benchmark of $2-2.5 billion of market cap per 100,000 ounces implies a $7 billion-plus company versus Orezone's current $1.5 billion market cap.
  • Orezone is guiding 220,000-250,000 ounces for this year, and the new Casa Berardi mine plan takes that Quebec mine to about 132,000 ounces per year after the ramp, which stacked on Bombore gets to roughly 350,000 ounces.
  • He flags the discounts himself: Burkina Faso has a military government and real security risk, Casa Berardi has no reserves, and the mine plan is only PEA-level — yet he says even a heavy haircut on the math leaves a large gap.
  • Management (Paddy) sees a path toward 500,000 ounces and told the host the company is fully funded, a claim the host treats skeptically, as he does with every developer making it.

Key points on Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd

  • The host calls Santacruz one of the shining lights in silver because the team executes, and concludes the stock's discount to peers is too heavy.
  • In Q2, revenue rose 55% to $114 million and adjusted EBITDA rose 74%, with about a $50 mining margin on every silver ounce sold; roughly 53 days of road blockades in Bolivia did not interrupt production.
  • On his comps math, Santacruz trades at roughly C$236 million of market cap per million ounces of pure silver produced (and $135 million per silver-equivalent ounce), so the stock would need to trade close to 200% higher to match peers.
  • He attributes the discount to purchased output — making it a cash-flow story rather than a resource-growth story — and to Comibol, Bolivia's state-owned mining company, holding 55% of Bolivar and Porco.
  • He notes Bolivia's new government is courting miners with promises of legal certainty, but cautions that it is still Bolivia.

Key points on Silver Tiger Metals

  • The host says the real win is Silver Tiger's full Semarnat approval — Mexico's environmental ministry — for open pit production, which stands out in a country that had been saying no to open pits for years and signals management competence.
  • He argues the open pit plan is mostly a gold mine — 8.6 million ounces of silver against 408,000 ounces of gold — despite the silver-story marketing, and thinks selling it as silver is the right call.
  • The company announced an $87 million Canadian bought deal at $1.00 per share with a half warrant around the same time CapEx guidance jumped about $37 million to roughly $124 million, which the market did not like.
  • On his math — about 7 million silver-equivalent ounces per year at PEA averages and roughly $300 million of market cap per million silver-equivalent ounces — he sees about a US$2.1 billion implied valuation versus roughly C$0.5 billion currently, if silver prices just hold.
  • First pour is targeted for December 2027, and he wants to watch whether the company hits that timeline.

Michael Gentile's takeaways

  • Top takeaway The host says Michael Gentile's involvement in Astra Exploration gets people's attention, one of the story's draws even though the headline drill hits are narrow.

Glenn Jessome's takeaways

  • Top takeaway The host says Glenn Jessome is one of the best promoters in this business — some people love that, some do not trust it — but that he likes Glenn and thinks he has done a great job at Silver Tiger.
  • He believes Jessome deliberately sells Silver Tiger as a silver story because he knows he can sell silver, a call the host thinks is right even though the open pit plan is mostly gold.
  • In the host's view, Brad Langel's involvement — one of the most respected figures in Mexico mining — gives Jessome the backbone to promote the story while trusting his team.

Steve Hyland's takeaways

  • Top takeaway He argues the US is in a fiscal corner — debt past $40 trillion with 25% of tax receipts going to interest (about 30% if run at 5% rates) — and calls the Fed powerless, left with only letting yields rise into austerity or trying to inflate away the debt, which underpins his years-long precious metals stance.
  • He cites the record that since 1800 all 52 countries exceeding 130% government debt-to-GDP ended in default, restructuring, devaluation or high inflation — Japan the lone exception — and says the US is on pace to cross 130% within about 18 months.
  • He points to the 5% level on the 10-year yield acting as 30 years of support then resistance, a US deficit around 6% of GDP (about 12% including roughly $115 trillion of off-balance-sheet liabilities, growing about $2 trillion a year), and Middle East-driven sulfur and fertilizer costs feeding coming food inflation and stagflation.
  • His stock conclusions in this episode: he would bid for G3 Goldfields near $0.40, sees large upside in Orezone even after discounting the Burkina Faso risk, and thinks Santacruz's discount is too heavy.
  • On First Quantum he advises sizing for a binary political outcome rather than averaging down, treating the company as a Zambia copper business with a cheaper, murkier Panama option.

Rick Rule's takeaways

  • Top takeaway The host invokes Rick Rule's habit of highlighting US off-balance-sheet liabilities, which he quantifies at around $115 trillion and growing by about $2 trillion a year in net present value terms, as part of his bearish US fiscal case.