Skip to main content

Brien Lundin: Gold Is Bottoming And About To Soar

VRIC Media Aug 7, 2026

Summary

Brien Lundin reads gold's $4,000 consolidation as a routine mid-bull correction driven by temporary Fed-tightening fears and summer seasonality, both due to fade.

He argues rising long-term Treasury yields reflect debt sustainability math and future currency depreciation, not a hawkish Fed.

Central banks keep using dips to accumulate; their buying functions as dollar-cost averaging, so price weakness buys them more tonnage.

Silver should outperform gold this cycle as industrial demand consumes all newly mined ounces, leaving none for monetary buyers.

Major producers like Newmont are now low-grading ore to push more ounces through mills while margins stay rich; cash flow will eventually chase juniors.

Key points on Newmont

  • Counter-intuitively, the guest argues shareholders should want Newmont's all-in sustaining cost of production to rise, because at these gold prices the producer should maximize throughput by running more lower-grade ore through the mill.
  • The guest frames Newmont's recent earnings being down a bit as expected for those familiar with the sector, with the bigger signal being how the producer responds at current prices.
  • The guest describes the shift as 'low grading' — running easily accessible, lower-grade ore at higher unit cost — because at current prices the extra ounces generate more total profit than higher-grade, lower-volume mining.
  • The guest places Newmont within a broader mining sector that is 'making money hand over fist' off recent earnings reports, even as investor enthusiasm for mining equities has cooled.

Darrell Thomas's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Thomas opens by framing the paradox of the moment: gold held sideways above $4,000 for months despite geopolitical conflict, sticky inflation, central-bank buying, and Fed-tightening fears, while the S&P 500, Dow, and NASDAQ push to fresh or near-record highs.
  • Thomas notes the mining sector — pointing to Newmont's recent earnings — is still 'printing cash hand over fist' even after the correction, despite investor disinterest in mining equities.

Brien Lundin's takeaways

  • Top takeaway The guest argues gold is in a bottoming process and that the sideways action is a seasonal correction that typically resolves by mid-August, creating a 'soon-to-be closing window of opportunity' before a fall rally.
  • The two factors holding gold back — fear of Fed tightening and war-driven inflation pressure on oil — are both temporary, in the guest's view; rate hikes would worsen debt-service costs and won't fix an oil-supply shock.
  • The guest argues the Fed is already quietly expanding its balance sheet (as it did in 2019) and will ultimately return to quantitative easing, treating the current hawkish talk as 'theater' pre-approved by Trump.
  • The guest sets a long-term gold target of $6,000–$8,000 by the end of this bull-market cycle (over several years), with $4,500 as the new floor and Deutsche Bank's ~$4,647 by year-end as the more conservative near-term anchor.
  • The guest is bullish across the entire mining-equity stack — silver and gold miners, explorers, developers, and producers — and argues producers will start buying juniors again once debt-free, with bidding wars for top assets returning.

Nomi Prins's takeaways

  • Top takeaway The guest cites Nomi Prins as holding a $6,000 gold price target, contrasting it with Deutsche Bank's $4,647 year-end call which he leans toward.