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Cerrado Gold – Q4 2025 Operations At Minera Don Nicolas, Lagoa Salgada EIA, & Mont Sorcier B.F.S.

The KE Report Jan 29, 2026

Summary

Cerrado Gold's Minera Don Nicolas produced 13,806 GEO in Q4 2025 and 50,238 GEO for the full year, with the underground at Paloma now ramping up alongside the heap leach.

Guidance for 2026 is 50,000 to 60,000 GEO weighted to H2/26, and a 70,000-meter drill program is testing extensions to extend mine life.

An unexpected unfavourable EIA opinion on Lagoa Salgada in Portugal came despite earlier unanimous committee approval, and the company is pursuing a resolution.

Mont Sorcier's Q2 2026 bankable feasibility study targets 67%+ iron concentrate; the prior PEA pegged NPV at $1.6B and management argues the market is ascribing no value to it.

Management frames Cerrado as trading at a steep discount to peer gold producers with similar or lower output, citing rerating potential if mine life is extended.

Key points on Pan American Silver

  • Brennan notes that Pan American's neighboring Cerro Moro mine operates at the same ~1,300 tons/day throughput as Cerrado's MDN plant, but grades ~18 g/t versus Cerrado's historical 7-8 g/t, framing Cerro Moro as a comparable benchmark.

Key points on Cerrado Gold Inc

  • Q4 2025 production at Minera Don Nicolas reached 13,800 ounces, with the new heap leach running ~4,000 ounces/month and the underground (commissioned June 2025) ramping toward ~1,000 ounces/month.
  • Full-year 2025 production of 50,000 ounces met guidance; the host frames 2026 at 50-60,000 gold-equivalent ounces with potential upside as the underground develops.
  • A 70,000-meter drill program is in progress across Paloma South, eastern extensions, Cholungo, and Baratina; Brennan notes each incremental g/t at the underground adds roughly $3 million to project economics.
  • Cerrado trades at roughly a $250 million Canadian market cap versus a peer range of $500-850 million Canadian (Jaguar, Serabi, Heliostar) despite producing more gold; Brennan argues demonstrating a doubled mine life by end of Q1 2026 should close the gap.
  • Lagoa Salgada received an unfavorable Article 16 EIA opinion (1 of 14 committee members dissenting over deep-aquifer concerns); Brennan says the firm proposed water re-injection through its expert and plans a market update within 1-2 weeks; Mont Sorcier bankable feasibility study remains on track for end of Q2 2026.

Key points on Jaguar Mining Inc

  • Grouped with Serabi and Heliostar as a Brazilian peer in the $500-850 million Canadian valuation range, producing materially less gold than Cerrado's MDN operation.

Key points on Serabi Gold

  • Cited alongside Jaguar and Heliostar as one of three peers trading between $500 million and $850 million Canadian while producing 30,000-40,000 ounces, below Cerrado's roughly 50,000-ounce 2025 production.

Mark Brennan's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Argues Cerrado trades at a meaningful discount (about $250 million Canadian market cap) versus a peer range of $500-850 million Canadian because MDN is a young asset that has yet to demonstrate a published life-of-mine plan.
  • Targets doubling MDN's mine life by end of Q1 2026 through the 70,000-meter drill program and underground optionality to justify a peer-tier rerating.
  • Calls the Lagoa Salgada Article 16 EIA rejection "unprecedented" in Portuguese mining history, claims it raised issues never flagged in the original 14-0 committee approval, and says the company will pursue resolution through the Portuguese regulator or government.
  • Frames Mont Sorcier as a multi-decade (potentially 40-year) DRI-grade (67% Fe) iron operation with an estimated ~$1.5 billion NPV in the upcoming Q2 2026 bankable feasibility study, supporting his view of $3-400 million of market cap uplift by summer 2026.
  • Reiterates Cerrado expects to exit 2025 with north of $20 million cash, AISC near $2,000/oz, and is targeting roughly $400-500 million of annual cash flow combined once Mont Sorcier is in production (target 2030).

Shad Markwitz's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Frames the rerating opportunity in two parts: a 2-3x move on MDN to align Cerrado with peers producing less gold, plus a Mont Sorcier rerating in which applying a 0.4-0.7x multiple at bankable feasibility completion would imply hundreds of millions of dollars in value not currently reflected in the share price.
  • Discloses that he is a shareholder of Cerrado and also holds positions in some peer companies, viewing the stock as a rerating setup contingent on extending mine life and holding 50-60,000 ounce production through 2026.