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Chris Vermeulen: Gold Could Drop To As Low As $3,100

VRIC Media Oct 7, 2026 38:49

Summary

Technical analyst Chris Vermeulen says yield charts point toward 8% on the 10-year Treasury, a headwind he expects for stocks, real estate, and bonds.

He sees gold in a bear market targeting $3,600 and possibly $3,100, with silver pointing to roughly $39 an ounce.

The long bond ETF TLT is down 56%, and Vermeulen warns bottom-pickers it could fall another 20-30% as yields climb.

Vermeulen expects a stronger dollar and forced margin-call selling to drag metals lower, a sharp drop he plans to buy.

Vermeulen is positioned in equities and Bitcoin, not metals, arguing the key is owning whichever asset class money is flowing into.

Darrell Thomas's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Darrell argues Treasuries no longer work as a safety trade because of debt, deficits and geopolitical risk, citing Norway's sovereign wealth fund saying it would reduce its Treasury holdings.
  • He frames the yield move as levels unseen since the early 2000s - mortgages above 7.5%, the 30-year above 5.5% and the 10-year above 5.2% - and presses on whether the Fed will intervene as government borrowing costs climb.
  • He says he still buys gold as insurance but at reduced size, since today's prices buy far less metal than a couple of years ago.
  • He recalls Rick Rule and Ross Beatty telling a VRIC panel audience to take profits near the metals peak, a caution the subsequent sell-off validated.
  • He shares that he took a speculative position in MSTR near $85 that worked out.

Rick Rule's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Darrell recalls Rick Rule warning on a VRIC panel that attendees needed to take some profits, shortly before the metals market sold off.
  • He remembers Rick's 2023 symposium drawing only about 200-300 people during the metals bear market, when some mining companies doubted they could get financing.

Scott Bessent's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Darrell says Scott Bessent has been trying to buy the long end of the Treasury curve but judges the effort ineffective so far.
  • Chris calls the intervention trivially small - discussed as roughly $6 billion - and argues hundreds of billions would be needed to actually move the market.

Chris Vermeulen's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Chris argues gold has rolled from a euphoric blow-off top into a stage-4 bear market, with a Fibonacci measured-move target of $3,600 - about a 12% further decline - and a possible extension down to $3,100.
  • He reads a new major bull market in Treasury yields, with the 10-, 5- and 30-year charts technically pointing above 8%, and warns the breakout could become a major headwind that eventually starts a bear market in equities.
  • He says TLT is down about 56% and could fall another 20-30%, possibly to around $60 a share, so investors trying to pick the bottom are still early.
  • He is positioned in equities - long the S&P 500 (expecting an 8-10% move) and the NASDAQ, with one 2X strategy up almost 50% - because money is flowing into stocks and Bitcoin rather than precious metals.
  • He sees silver in the same bear market with a $39-$40 per ounce target and says a potential ~17% dollar rally could force panic liquidation in metals - a sharp, short drop he plans to buy for a 5-15 year horizon.

Ross Beatty's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Darrell recalls Ross Beatty telling a VRIC panel, with unusual seriousness, that investors needed to take some profits - right before the market came crashing down.