Chris Vermeulen: Why This Gold Breakout Could Fail

VRIC Media Aug 9, 2026

Summary

Gold's recent breakout is technically a bear-market bounce, not a new bull trend — moving averages still slope down and price needs to confirm.

The broader market is in full bull mode; the S&P 500 may run 10%+ higher toward 8,500 as money rotates from Big Tech into equal-weighted stocks.

Copper is bucking the broader metals downtrend, hitting all-time highs with bullish miners and AI demand supporting the move.

Long-term bonds (TLT) remain in a clear downtrend; the 30-year yield above 5% last appeared just before the 2007 financial crisis.

Silver can drift to $70-$75 and gold to $4,500 within this countertrend rally before hitting heavy overhead resistance.

The guest discloses a personal WPM position with a cost near $100 and is considering partial profit-taking after the stock rallied to about $125 on the day of recording.
The host advises treating a stock position like WPM as a swing trade during a countertrend rally - lock in some profits into the gap up and move stops up - rather than mixing a long-term thesis with a short-term bounce.

Top takeaway The host reveals he holds WPM as a longer-term position with a cost near $100, now sitting around $125, and is leaning toward trimming some into the gap-up rather than liquidating.
The host shares that one of his retirement accounts uses a Fidelity 500 index fund similar to the SPY, and says a bull/bear timing signal would let him rebalance to cash and redeploy on sell-offs.

Top takeaway The guest's core call: gold, silver and miners are still in a bear market technically, and today's big rally is a countertrend bounce that could peak out and roll back down within days.
He argues the only bullish setup is a sustained break of two prior standout highs on miners like GDX, followed by a higher low that can be bought; otherwise he wants to wait for the 20-day to cross above the 50-day.
On equities he says the S&P 500 is in 'full bull mode' with Fibonacci targets implying roughly 10% upside to about 847 on SPY (around 8,500 on the index), and he expects a 2021-style euphoric blow-off before a larger correction.
He describes his 'asset investing' approach: only hold assets that are trending up, trade ETFs (including 2X funds) via rules-based signals, target 5-12 trades a year of 3-8% each, and use physical metals separately as a long-term insurance position.
On yields and TLT he warns the 30-year chart is pointing to about 8% - reminiscent of 2007 - which would mean a financial crisis and TLT roughly halving; on copper he is bullish, with a Fibonacci target near $738 and miners setting up a large bull flag.