Col. Douglas Macgregor: The Iran War Restart, $13,000 Gold & The Point of No Return

Palisades Gold Radio Aug 6, 2026

Summary

The guest argues the Iran halt is a pause, not a resolution, leaving oil supply risk and gold's safe-haven demand intact.

Wholesale oil sits near $140 a barrel, and he expects $150 to $200 if strikes resume, with refining already at capacity.

He sees gold reaching $13,000 to $15,000 an ounce by 2029 to 2031, driven by debt arithmetic and continued central bank buying.

A Houthi blockade of Saudi exports would strand Gulf oil and gas, he says, unless Gulf states push out US forces.

His defensive posture is cash and precious metals rather than margin, arguing that borrowing turns wrong timing into forced selling.

Top takeaway He argues the current halt in hostilities is a pause rather than a resolution and expects the air and missile campaign to restart within days or weeks, because he does not think the president can politically disengage under pressure from the Israel lobby.
He says the United States is past the point of no return and was unprepared for an opponent using linked space-based surveillance and long-range weapons, and recommends cutting a deal and exiting rather than escalating into a war with what he calls an unbeatable Russia-China-Iran alignment.
He warns the Ukraine, Gulf and China conflicts are converging into a single larger regional war, and that a Houthi blockade of Saudi Arabia and the Red Sea would effectively end Saudi Arabia as it exists and force Gulf states to expel US forces to survive.
He says the macro setup sits on the edge of a major depression with bank runs possible in the coming months, pointing to the 10-year yield around 4.7% and closing on 5%, a falling dollar reserve share and central banks buying roughly 850 to 1,000 tons of gold a year.
He expects gold at $13,000 to $15,000 an ounce, possibly by 2028 or 2029 rather than 2031 if the war restarts, and says he holds everything in cash and precious metals with bullish calls on oil at about $140 a barrel wholesale at the time of the interview and $150 to $200 on a restart, plus copper.

Top takeaway The guest calls Rick Rule the leading figure on this kind of commodity trade and says he cannot add much to what Rule has already said.
Rule is invoked as the benchmark when discussing how to play oil through futures, with the guest noting he is not an experienced commodities trader himself.

Top takeaway He notes that on the guest's previous June appearance the guest already predicted Israel would stay on the offensive through the ceasefire and pull the United States back in, says time proved that right, and presses him on where the conflict stands after the halt.
He presses the downside cases he wants addressed: a Houthi blockade of Bab el-Mandeb cutting Saudi oil exports, refining capacity running at its limit, and the warning that being wrong on timing is as bad as being wrong directionally when playing oil through futures.

Top takeaway The guest names Jeff Currie among forecasters who would all say strategic reserves and related capacity are nearing the bottom and that the effects of the conflict have not been felt yet.

Top takeaway The guest cites Ray Dalio as one of the analysts who would agree that reserves are close to running out and the real economic and market fallout has yet to arrive.