Copper Has a New $5 Floor | Colin Joudrie - Selkirk Copper
Summary
A 100,000-metre Yukon drill campaign — the largest Yukon calendar-year program ever — lifted Selkirk's Minto resource about 280% in tons and roughly 180% in contained copper, gold, and silver.
The guest argues a multi-year concentrate shortfall plus data-center and electrification demand has set a new copper floor near US/lb that should outlast most forecasts.
Selkirk pushed its PEA (Preliminary Economic Assessment — early-stage economic study) from July into late September so the larger resource flows through full integrated mine plans first.
Restart hinges on amended permit submissions by early November, a feasibility study this quarter, and financing decisions ahead of a targeted mid-2027 restart.
Yukon's tight grid caps Selkirk's Minto power reservations at 8–10.5 MW with onsite backup generation ready for shortfalls.
Steve Hyland's takeaways
- Top takeaway Frames the Minto asset for the audience as a copper restart story with ~350M lbs of historic production, and characterizes the team as risk-averse and detail-oriented — a stance he says is reflected in the share price.
- Points to power constraints in the Yukon as a sector-wide concern and a bigger risk for other large Yukon projects than for Selkirk, whose grid allocation and onsite backup generation are already in place.
Colin Joudrie's takeaways
- Top takeaway Argues copper has established a new floor around $5, driven by a structural concentrate supply shortfall and demand from hyperscalers and electrification; expects prices to stay elevated longer than most think.
- Views copper buyers as price-insensitive — unlike oil and gas — so high prices will not trigger consumer or government backlash; instead he hopes governments respond with faster permitting in Canada.
- Names two near-term worries for the Minto restart: navigating the Yukon permit amendment process (regulators have visited site, but 'scar tissue' from past projects is slowing them) and locking in competitive financing to avoid the 'wrong cap table'.
- Frames the restart opportunity around three advantages: assets bought for under $6.5M CAD against $330M+ CAD previously invested above ground, the gold/silver stream extinguished, and ~60% of the site already reclaimed by the government.
- 12-month checklist: PEA by end of September, permit amendment applications by end-October/early-November, feasibility study kickoff this month, financing decision in the next 3 to 4 months, and a restart decision targeted for mid-2027.