Craig Hemke - FOMC Catalysts, Geopolitical Energy Shocks, and Gold vs. Silver Divergence

The KE Report Sep 14, 2026 19:35

Summary

FOMC is priced for a 25 bp hike, but Hemke argues the bond market has run 100 bps ahead of Fed funds since March.

A damaged Middle Eastern pipeline is keeping crude firm and reinforcing the hawkish case that pressured precious metals from August highs.

Hemke frames the pullback as a multi-month base — gold is still $400 off its lows and 10% above the June hawkish peak.

COMEX silver open interest near 103,000 contracts has thinned depth on both sides, which Hemke blames for amplified two-way intraday volatility.

Silver’s January blow-off to $112 left the chart muted; Hemke expects gold and large miners like Newmont to keep outperforming for now.

The host cites Newmont as having just hit new all-time highs (roughly two weeks before the September 14, 2026 recording), using it as his primary evidence that gold equities are still outperforming silver and silver shares.
Newmont is implicitly grouped with the bigger guys and higher-quality gold names that the host and Hemke both say are leading the sector, rather than the juniors.

Top takeaway Hemke argues the macro setup has flipped hawkish - markets now price roughly a 90% chance of at least a 25bp Fed hike at the September meeting, versus a 60/40 no-hike lean in August, and he notes the entire yield curve has shifted about 1% higher since the war began on March 1.
He frames gold and silver as building a sideways base since May/June rather than staging a V-shaped recovery, pointing out gold is only about 10% off its recent lows (around 4,300-4,400 dollars versus the 4,700 dollar peak) and silver roughly 15% off, with the 10-year note back above 5%.
Hemke attributes the recent two-way volatility to a structural drop in market participation - COMEX silver open interest sits near 103,000 contracts versus an all-time high near 244,000 six years earlier - and blames CME margin hikes for chasing hedge funds out of the market.
He expects gold and gold shares to keep outperforming silver and silver shares for a while, because silver January blow-off (from roughly 72 dollars at year-end 2025 to about 112 dollars by late January) needs time to be digested.
Hemke observes that leadership inside the gold complex is coming from larger, higher-quality producers rather than juniors - not the late-cycle pattern of juniors leading - and points to Newmont recent all-time high as a concrete example.