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Craig Hemke – Inflation, Warsh Presser, Geopolitics, Seasonality, Mid-terms To Drive Precious Metals

The KE Report Oct 13, 2026 21:32

Summary

The guest argues US deficit spending structurally requires inflation, making a return to the Fed's 2% target unlikely regardless of who chairs the Fed.

This week's CPI and PPI readings plus Kevin Warsh's Thailand speech could reset rate expectations just before next week's FOMC meeting.

Gold holding above $4,000 and silver oscillating around $60 after two huge up-years is consolidation, not weakness; gold is down only about 4% year to date.

Gold seasonality turns favorable from November through January, driven by Indian festival demand, holiday jewelry buying, and year-end portfolio repositioning.

Q3 margins for gold and silver producers remain historically strong, pointing to a solid earnings season, potential M&A, dividends, and buybacks.

Key points on Barrick Mining

  • The guest says Barrick is one of the large producers likely to lead off the Q3 precious metals earnings season around late October.

Key points on Newmont

  • The guest calls Newmont the bellwether stock that everybody watches to lead off the Q3 earnings season, likely around the 28th or 29th of October.

Craig Hemke's takeaways

  • Top takeaway The guest argues inflation is not going away because the US government needs to run it hot to pay off yesterday's debt with cheaper dollars, and he doubts Warsh can return inflation to 2%.
  • On price action as of the recording, gold is down about 4% year to date after 25% in 2024 and 63% in 2025, still holding above $4,000, and he sees a sideways year as an acceptable outcome after two huge years.
  • He points to seasonality: over 2017-2026 January averaged the best month (+3.7%), followed by December (+2.8%), so the November-to-January stretch starting in about three weeks is typically the best period for precious metals.
  • He flags this week as 'sneaky important': CPI Wednesday and PPI Thursday precede Kevin Warsh's Thursday-night speech in Thailand and next week's FOMC, and a benign outcome could help break the downtrend of lower lows and lower highs in place since February.
  • On the US mid-term elections about three weeks away, he expects significant market volatility, noting markets often react opposite to what is expected on election night.

Shad Markwoods's takeaways

  • Top takeaway The host notes central banks, including China, often buy gold dips, and that stablecoin issuers like Tether have emerged as new gold buyers.
  • The host argues Q3 metals prices, though a bit lower than Q2, still leave miners with historically amazing margins, record cash, and new M&A deals coming out of the Beaver Creek Conference.