Craig Hemke - Navigating Post-Jackson Hole Volatility in Gold & Mining Equities
The KE Report Aug 31, 2026 17:11
Summary
Gold, silver, and mining equities rebounded 10-30% in August before a hawkish Jackson Hole pullback from Chair Warsh reset expectations.
Watch $4,500 on the December gold contract as key support; GDX and SILJ remain above their 200-day moving averages.
Silver lags gold, copper, and major miners but holding above $48 — the 1979/2011 highs — argues against another collapse.
COT data shows speculators at their largest long positions since January, suggesting a healthy washout is likely before the next leg higher.
Central bank gold demand and steps toward yield curve control support the long-term debasement trade, even after short-term hawkish Fed headlines.
Key points on Newmont
- The guest cites Newmont as a major gold stock that made all-time highs and crossed above its 200-day moving average during the August rally
- Used as a representative example of higher-quality gold majors leading the rebound rather than late-stage junior speculation
Craig Hemke's takeaways
- Top takeaway Argues the August selloff was an algo-driven end-of-summer dip after hawkish Jackson Hole comments, with the lows in and gold potentially heading toward $5,000 in a rounded-bottom scenario by year-end 2026
- Believes mining shares leading the rebound (up 30%+ in August) shows this is not late-stage speculation, with GDX still above its 200-day and December gold support at ~$4,500 (prior March/May lows)
- Sees COT positioning getting heavy (largest speculator positions since January), consistent with the overbought reading that the market is now washing out
- Highlights that a weak August jobs report, after July's negative 57,000 print, could completely write off rate hike expectations at the next FOMC meeting
- Believes silver staying above $48 (now mid-60s) is structurally bullish and unlikely to revisit the teens/20s/30s absent an unforeseen liquidity crisis