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Craig Hemke - Previewing Fed Meeting, PCE Data, Newmont Earnings

The KE Report Jul 20, 2026

Summary

Markets shrug off Iran war escalation; the guest argues traders have grown desensitized, with crude oil's overnight spike toward $85 quickly fading.

The Fed's quiet period (a pre-meeting communications blackout) empties the calendar; markets price roughly 16% odds of a 25 basis point hike next week.

PCE inflation should keep cooling like CPI and PPI did, but the guest expects war-driven energy costs to cloud the print.

Newmont opens gold-miner earnings Thursday with output guided lower and AISC (all-in sustaining cost — the full cost to produce an ounce) rising.

Miner shares have round-tripped to last November alongside gold and silver; the guest favors research-driven stock picking over ETFs for the rebound.

Key points on Agnico Eagle Mines

  • The host calls Agnico Eagle 'probably the best run gold company' ahead of its earnings report due next week on July 29, the second major gold-miner report of the season after Newmont.
  • Per the host, Agnico is about 9.9% of the GDX and, together with Newmont, the two stocks make up over 20% of the ETF, so they set the tone for gold-miner earnings season.
  • The host worries that by the time Agnico reports on the 29th, much of the gold sector may already have taken a nosedive following Newmont's report.

Key points on Newmont

  • The host lays out already-weak Q2 expectations: EPS of about 213 to 218 per share versus 290 in Q1, revenue down almost a billion dollars sequentially, lower gold output, and all-in sustaining costs some analysts expect to rise significantly from Q1's just-under-$3,000 per ounce.
  • Newmont reports this Thursday, July 23 at market close, kicking off gold-miner earnings season, and as the biggest and most followed producer it sets the tone for the whole sector.
  • The host notes Newmont is about 10.9% of the GDX and, with Agnico Eagle at about 9.9%, the two make up over 20% of the ETF, amplifying Newmont's influence on sector performance.
  • Craig Hemke criticizes Newmont's 'bloated management' but concedes it remains the perceived bellwether — if Newmont doesn't go up, it has a negative impact on every single gold stock.
  • The host argues too much emphasis is placed on Newmont: many other miners printed money in Q2 at average prices of about $4,300 gold and $73 silver, and some have lower cost structures.

Cory Fleck's takeaways

  • Top takeaway He argues the earnings news itself is mostly noise: investors follow the gold price, so if gold rallies toward $4,500 around Newmont's report the market reacts positively no matter the numbers.
  • He assembles the soft Q2 case for Newmont: EPS seen at about 213 to 218 per share versus 290 in Q1, revenue down almost a billion dollars sequentially, lower gold output, and potentially significantly higher all-in sustaining costs.
  • He questions whether too much emphasis is put on Newmont, noting about two dozen mid-tier and three dozen smaller producers, many of which printed money in Q2 at averages of about $4,300 gold and $73 silver with lower cost structures.
  • On the Fed he expects little from next week's meeting — Warsh's second, with no one really expecting much — and he raises the debate over whether the Fed would rather hike now than close to the midterm elections.

Kevin Warsh's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Craig Hemke argues Warsh is not as hawkish as the market and media portray: he talks tough to prove he is 'not just a sock puppet for Trump', but in the end he will come up with reasons to cut rates.
  • Hemke would not be surprised if Warsh skips the press conference after the July 28 FOMC meeting — since Warsh has said he wants to talk less — leaving only a short statement and making the meeting a likely non-event.
  • Hemke casts Warsh's Jackson Hole speech in August as the next major drama for signals on a September hike, with the market expecting at least one hike by year-end (only about a 16% chance of no change).
  • The host frames this as Warsh's second Fed meeting, one no one is really expecting much from.

Craig Hemke's takeaways

  • Top takeaway He is 'bullish as ever' on gold miners long term and expects better-than-expected earnings with wide margins at around $4,400 gold and $70 silver, but warns traders will sell the strength — a stock could open up 3% on great results and finish up only 1%.
  • He argues the shares trade mainly on metal-price sentiment: with gold and silver back where they were in early-to-mid November 2025, the GDX and SILJ are too, and only a metals turnaround (gold toward $5,000, silver toward $90) will lift them — after which multiples expand.
  • On the Fed he sides with the roughly 84% expecting no hike at next week's meeting, thinks Warsh will eventually find reasons to cut, and flags the Jackson Hole speech as the event that sets up September.
  • He expects next week's PCE to come in softer like the latest CPI and PPI (citing Nick Timiraos), but doubts it will matter because the restarted war and rising energy prices will get the improvement written off.
  • He is cynical about Newmont — citing its 'bloated management' while acknowledging its bellwether status — and says the sector is back to a stock-picker's environment where researched picks should beat blanket ETF buying in the rebound.