Dave Erfle - Key Price Levels To Watch For Gold, GDX, GDXJ & Silver
The KE Report Sep 15, 2026 20:11
Summary
Key weekly-close supports to watch: GDXJ 110, GDX 85, gold $4,200, silver $60 — closing below would undercut the bullish case.
Miners are holding up better than the metal itself: GDX and GDXJ jumped 32% in August on a 10% gold move, a sign of accumulation.
Gold has historically rallied through Fed rate-hiking cycles — the 1970s, 2015–16, and 2022–25 all delivered gains as rates rose.
Rising global bond yields, a $40T US debt load, and heavy central-bank gold buying are driving a structural rotation out of Treasuries into gold.
Conference season — Beaver Creek and the Denver Gold Forum — could spark fresh M&A announcements and finally pull junior miners off the sidelines.
Key points on Newmont
- The guest highlights Newmont as the only S&P 500-listed gold stock, noting it has already reclaimed its late-March all-time highs and is leading the broader gold sector ahead of GDX.
- He reads Newmont's outperformance as an early signal of sector rotation finally returning to gold equities.
Key points on Wheaton Precious Metals
- The guest calls Wheaton Precious Metals the leading silver major, pointing out it has already reclaimed its late-March all-time highs while GDX has not come close to its own.
- He treats Wheaton's leadership as evidence that silver stocks are not flashing the relative weakness that would make him more cautious on the sector.