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Dave Erfle - Precious Metals Rebound, Seasonality & Cyclicality, What News Will Matter For Stocks?

The KE Report Jul 7, 2026

Summary

Gold is holding the $4,000 psychological level with support near $3,950, and the guest reads the 30% correction as normal secular-bull behavior.

Silver's 45-year cup-and-handle breakout at $50 is being tested, with weekly support near $55 holding and silver regaining relative strength versus gold.

GDX and GDXJ are down far less than the metals, a positive divergence the guest reads as an intermediate top rather than a cyclical peak.

Central banks led by China keep buying gold at any price while the sovereign debt crisis worsens, keeping the macro case intact.

Well-funded producers and a coming deluge of drill results and economic studies could lift juniors out of the summer doldrums, rewarding patience.

Key points on Newmont

  • Erfle says Newmont's share price has held up relatively well because management paid off all its debt and holds roughly $8 billion in cash, as of the July 7, 2026 interview.
  • He notes Newmont's large open-pit projects use more diesel than peers running on hydropower, though high margins mean oil now accounts for only about 15-20% of producer costs versus as much as 50% before.

David Erfle's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Erfle frames the current pullback as normal cyclicality, comparing it to 2008 when silver dropped 60% before rallying 490% into 2011 and gold fell about 35% before rallying 180%.
  • He argues the fundamental case for owning gold has strengthened: central banks led by China, which has bought for 19 consecutive months, are buying more as the price falls and funding purchases by selling US dollars.
  • He says he warned subscribers to trim into the January parabolic peak at $5,600 and sees the current fearful selling as emotional, with the best stocks on sale for patient buyers.
  • He advises watching upcoming earnings for per-ounce margins, all-in sustaining costs, organic growth and balance-sheet improvement, and argues acquirers should consider M&A now while targets are down 50-60%.