Erik Wetterling – Deep Value Developers and Alpha Catalyst Explorers Build An All-Weather Portfolio

The KE Report Jun 17, 2026

Summary

Erik Wetterling argues for an all-weather junior mining portfolio built on company catalysts rather than metal price direction.

High-cost producers offer the biggest upside in bull markets but carry the highest bankruptcy risk when sentiment falls.

Test whether a project still works at lower prices: NPV (net present value, today's value of future cash flows) versus market cap.

Single-project explorers risk a dilution spiral after a missed drill hole, so strong backing and third-party validators matter.

Silver equities look discounted: many developers imply a $30 silver price while the metal trades near $70.

The guest says AngloGold is effectively dictating the news flow at Inflection Resources, which he cites as the reason that company's announcements have been slow.

Used as the illustration of beta-timed buying: over the last decade, buys near First Majestic's lows turned out red while buys near the highs showed profits, which he calls a way to make a lot of money and then look incredibly stupid.

Named with Blackrock Silver as a higher-grade project whose studies suggest it could absorb significant metal price drops and still look good.
He notes this lower metals-price leverage comes with fewer ripper bull-market years, and that market caps like Amex's do not appear to be pricing current metal prices.

Recent test-work news points to silver recoveries of 70-90% plus, against a base case of roughly 40%, and he treats that upgrade as the key new development.
He highlights a pyrite concentrate by-product angle and links it to current market enthusiasm for pyrite and sulphuric acid.
If the polymetallic product works with what he describes as rock-bottom costs, he says he cannot think of a silver price that would be uncomfortable to hold.

Montage Gold announced further higher-grade satellite deposits beyond the original gold discovery, the latest in a string of value additions since it set out in 2024.
He describes management alpha as so strong that value is now increasing faster than the company's own stated goals.
His argument is that management alpha is only captured by time held: a two-year holding period tends to produce repeated positive surprises, while a day's holding does not.
Cited as his leading current example of a stock whose expected news flow looks cheap against its market cap.

Named with Amex as a higher-grade project whose studies suggest it could suffer a sizable metal price drop and still look good.
He argues market caps like Blackrock Silver's are not pricing current metal prices, at the cost of missing the big ripper years optionality plays provide.

Sweden's municipal veto against uranium mining was voted down, which he says puts District Metals back in the race.
He describes the deposit as theoretically very large, calling it infinite in effect, while noting substantial local opposition remains.
In his view the veto reversal changes long-term value materially and, unlike most theses in the sector, has almost nothing to do with where metals prices are today.
Framed as one of three more advanced, resource-backed stories he favours for catalysts that are not tied to metals-price direction.

Cited as a pure alpha and drill-risk success story: going from a discovery to roughly 8-10 million ounces, in his view, would be very hard for a bear market to keep from being reflected in the stock.
Used as the benchmark for what he wants from exploration names, alongside higher-grade projects like Amex and Blackrock Silver that survive metal price drops.

Top takeaway He picks resource stocks as if operating in a perpetual bear market, favouring alpha catalysts and news flow that add value regardless of metals-price direction.
His preferred names look cheap on what they have already proven plus a probable value increase over the next two years, so ounces can be proven up even if sector EV-per-ounce multiples fall.
He avoids very high-cost producers despite their ripper years, on the grounds that they carry real bankruptcy risk at sector lows, while accepting that non-beta names lag in strong tape years.
He insists on solid backing and third-party validators to stay out of dilution spirals, and treats the loss of outperformance in bull markets as the price of that protection.
He cuts sunk exploration stories for a 50-60% paper loss to high-grade the portfolio, and says he will move further out on the risk curve into pure exploration once banks and mature producers are no longer cheap.