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Gold and Silver Face a Dangerous Turning Point as Stocks Surge | Chris Vermeulen Warns

Sprott Money Aug 5, 2026

Summary

The guest reads the US dollar as having entered a technical bull market after its January bottom, likely capping gold and silver.

The metals bounce is a counter-trend rally inside a downtrend, the guest argues, with gold miners still technically in a bear market.

Confirmation to turn bullish requires gold, silver, and miners breaking prior significant highs so the 50-day and 20-day moving averages turn up together.

A broadening stock rally — money rotating out of big tech and AI into equal-weighted and small-cap stocks — signals investors still want risk.

Fibonacci extensions (measured-move price targets) suggest the stock rally could run another 8-18%, surprising investors betting on a decline.

Craig Hemke's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Hemke is watching whether the Fibonacci-extension pattern he tracked through 2024 and 2025, where gold ran to the 618 level, now plays out on the downside, though gold was holding support near that level at the time of recording.
  • He frames the dollar index as a key headwind for metals, citing the new US Treasury-Bank of Japan program to support the yen as a factor that has weighed on precious metals for several months.
  • He pushes for concrete bull-market confirmation levels in silver, floating roughly $62, $65 and $70, and asks whether strong second-quarter earnings are drawing money into mining shares.

Chris Vermeulen's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Argues the recent bounce in gold, silver and miners is a counter-trend pause inside a bear market, not a new bull market, and warns it could end in a bigger sell-off once the equity rally stalls.
  • Says the US dollar has technically entered a bull market since bottoming in January 2026 and is holding support in the 99 range, which he expects to cap precious metals over the next month or two.
  • Expects one final blow-off phase in equities, with Fibonacci extension targets of roughly 8% more for the Nasdaq 100 at the 618 golden ratio and about 18% at the full measured move, which he says could catch traders betting on a decline off guard.
  • Reports his band strategy has been long the 2x Nasdaq ETF (QLD), up almost 40% from entry as of the August 4, 2026 recording, and that his SPY position hit a first target that day, prompting him to trim some exposure.
  • Would only turn positive on precious metals after a strong impulse move breaks two significant highs and turns the 20-day, 5-day and 50-day averages up, and says he plans to accumulate physical metals only when he believes the next big rally is starting.