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Gold Is At Records. Barrick Is Printing Cash. The Stock Still Fell. | Q4 Earnings

The Deep Dive Feb 9, 2026

Summary

Barrick Mining's record Q4 2025 — $6B revenue and $1.04 adjusted EPS that beat $0.85 consensus — still triggered a 6% stock drop.

The producer ended 2025 in a $2B net cash position, lifted its dividend 140% to $0.42, and committed 50% of attributable free cash flow back to shareholders.

2026 guidance of 2.9-3.3 million gold ounces sits below 2025's 3.3 million, signalling flat-to-down production even with gold at record prices.

New CEO Mark Hill replaced Mark Bristow and shifted guidance 'bottom up', giving mine-plan ownership back to site teams.

Barrick plans a late-2026 IPO of its North American gold assets while keeping a controlling stake, suggesting 2025 may mark peak earnings.

Key points on Barrick Mining

  • Q4 2025 set records across the board: $6B revenue (+45% QoQ), $2.4B net earnings, and $1.04 adjusted EPS beating the $0.85 consensus — yet the host notes shares fell as much as 6% on the print.
  • Full-year 2025 was also record-setting: $12.9B revenue (+31% YoY), $4.1B adjusted earnings (+87% YoY), $2.42 EPS nearly double 2024's $1.26, and attributable free cash flow up 160% YoY, lifted by a 46% jump in average gold price to $3,501/oz.
  • The balance sheet flipped to a $2B net cash position in Q4 (from -$323M), with cash of $6.7B (+33% in Q4) against $4.7B of flat debt; the CFO describes capital investment programs as 'well funded'.
  • Capital returns stepped up: dividend lifted 140% to $0.42/share, $500M in buybacks, and a new policy returning 50% of attributable free cash flow to shareholders — totaling $2.4B returned in 2025.
  • Leadership and strategy shift: Mark Bristow was ousted in September, Mark Hill is the new permanent CEO with mine-plan ownership pushed down to site teams, and the board approved preparations to IPO the North American Gold assets (the Nevada Gold Mines JV plus the Fourmile project) — process expected to close in late 2026.

Steve Hyland's takeaways

  • Top takeaway The host argues Barrick looks undervalued on relative metrics — EV/net income of 14.9x and EV/EBITDA of 7.1x versus peer averages of 21.6x and 9.4x — and frames that valuation gap as the call to watch.
  • He highlights the disconnect between Q4 results and the tape: shares fell up to 6% on the print even as revenue, adjusted earnings, and EPS all beat, framing it as a 'lose-lose' pattern for mining equities.
  • He calls 2026 guidance a 'letdown': gold guided to 2.9–3.3M oz (down YoY) and copper essentially flat at 190–220k tons, against 2025's average gold price of $3,501/oz.
  • He frames the dividend hike (+140% to $0.42/share), $500M in buybacks, and the new 50%-of-attributable-FCF payout policy as the bright spot for shareholder returns.
  • His overall stance: if gold and silver consolidate near current levels, owning Barrick should 'do all right', but he warns 2025 may be the peak of earning power until the IPO of the North American Gold assets closes in late 2026.