He Wasn’t Allowed to Lose Money -- In Mining | Warren Gilman - Queen’s Road Capital
Summary
Warren Gilman ran Li Ka Shing's mining money under a rule forbidding any single losing investment — and never lost money from 2010 to 2019.
Convertible debentures (loans that convert to equity) carry protective clauses; at Duluth Metals a change-of-control premium turned a $30 million loan into $44 million.
Queen's Road invests only in sector-leading ore bodies (deposit quality decides downturn survival), writing $50-100 million checks while staying under 10% ownership.
NexGen's Arrow won't sink uranium prices: mine supply has lagged demand for decades, and new deposits need roughly 20 years from discovery to production.
Gilman calls gold and silver's rise inevitable — government deficits keep devaluing the US dollar — and treats the recent correction as a buying opportunity.
Leigh Curyer's takeaways
- Top takeaway The host notes NexGen CEO Leigh Curyer has appeared on the channel multiple times, and Gilman credits Curyer and his team with doing a strong job running NexGen.
Mark Carney's takeaways
- Top takeaway The host notes Mark Carney announced the federal major projects office and that NexGen's Arrow project was notably absent from its list.
- Gilman says he is glad permitting is complete and expects Carney to officiate at mine-opening ceremonies when NexGen starts construction.
Steve Hyland's takeaways
- Top takeaway The host raises the concern that Arrow's forecast output could weigh on the uranium market's supply-demand balance and pricing, pressing Gilman on the risk.
- He questions whether ATHA Energy, still short of a large defined ore body, really fits Gilman's stated investment criteria.
- He discloses that he does not yet own Queen's Road shares but is strongly considering buying in.
Warren Gilman's takeaways
- Top takeaway His core method comes from three rules Li Ka-shing imposed — never lose money on any single investment in any year, pay annual rent on the capital, demand uncapped upside — which he met every year from 2010 to 2019 and now runs at Queen's Road through convertible debentures.
- He argues uranium's multi-decade supply deficit means Arrow's output will not dent the market, and that even $200-a-pound uranium would not produce a material supply response for roughly 20 years.
- He is firmly bullish on gold and silver, calling further gains inevitable on rising US deficits and a weaker dollar; as of the July 2026 interview he called the correction from $5,000 to $4,000 a buying opportunity and expects gold to reach $20,000.
- His checklist: checks of $50-100 million, no more than 10% fully-diluted ownership, only one or two deals a year, and ore bodies strong enough to make money anywhere in the commodity cycle.
- He explains why he stretched his rules for ATHA Energy — the provenance of the staked ground, a geologist he met at NexGen in 2016 who now runs ATHA, and 100% ownership of a district-scale position — arguing the risk-reward is skewed toward reward.