Higher Rates Bringing Higher Risk For Investors? | New Harbor Financial

Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money® Sep 23, 2026 1:03:28

Summary

Rising 10-year Treasury yields near 5% look historically normal but bite harder with $40 trillion of US debt refinancing at higher rates.

New Harbor expects a stock market top within months, then Fed easing that pushes the 10-year toward 3%, making high-quality bonds a tactical trade.

Duration (a bond portfolio's price sensitivity to rate moves) explains why short-duration Treasury sleeves limit damage when yields rise.

Housing looks set for a 20-30% price correction as higher mortgage rates bite, with Florida and Austin markets already slowing.

Gold and silver must clear resistance near $4,600 and $74 spot before their next upleg, supporting real assets against slow-burn inflation.

Top takeaway Taggart counters the bearish rate talk by citing GDPNow at 5.1% for the third quarter, arguing robust growth might let the economy handle higher bond yields for a while.
He shows 30-year Treasury yields against net interest expense as a share of government revenue, calling the recent spike in debt service one of the pernicious effects of higher yields.
His armchair refining take: with capacity around 98%, defense-production-act pushes, and oil deals (Venezuela, Canada negotiations, Greenland), the US is pushing to become the gas station to the world.
He opens by noting higher rates mathematically pull capital from stocks toward bonds, yet equities remain near all-time highs, which frames the episode's risk question.

Top takeaway Adam Taggart says housing analyst Melody Wright agrees with Mike Preston's logic and magnitude: an expected 20-30% fall in US housing prices once the stock market tops and crashes.

Top takeaway Preston's core path: yields near 5% are topping, a stock market top is likely within about six months, and renewed Fed QE then drives the 10-year toward roughly 3%, making the firm's 7.5% long-Treasury allocation a two-year trade to lock in yields and ride price appreciation, not a 20-30 year hold.
He argues the economy cannot handle a 6% 10-year and doubts the breakout to about 5.1% extends much further, because the Fed will return to QE whenever markets break.
He endorses Brent Johnson's dollar milkshake thesis (a crisis ramp in the dollar, possibly above 120 on DXY, before a multi-year slide toward 60-80) and suggests unsure investors park money in 4.3% one-year T-bills rather than go all-in on any risk asset.
He expects housing prices to fall 20-30% when stocks top, and thinks the lower rates that follow will not rescue the housing market.
He warns passive S&P 500 holders may make no money for 10-plus years and could lose half along the way, while calling gold's pullback a good buying opportunity below the roughly $4,600 confirmation level.

Top takeaway Mike Preston says he thinks Brent Johnson's dollar milkshake theory is essentially right, predicting a huge rush into US dollars in the next crisis, and notes Johnson will appear at the host's upcoming seminar.