'I Still Like SILVER' - $200 a 'When, Not If' Question: Gianni Kovacevic

Commodity Culture Aug 7, 2026

Summary

Kovacevic treats $200 silver as a 'when, not if' call, anchored to a 40:1 silver-to-gold ratio off an $8,000 gold target.

Silver producers trade like silver is $40 even at $60 metal, opening a re-rating window for major silver miners.

Agnico Eagle at $200 is his highest-conviction gold pick, with cash flow strong enough to survive a $500 gold pullback.

Lithium is the most mispriced sector globally; DLE (Direct Lithium Extraction) will feed 20-30% of a market that triples by 2030.

Copper sits in a $5.50-$7 plateau, so he prefers junior drill plays where one discovery hole can drive multi-bagger returns.

Kovacevic argues Agnico Eagle at ~C$200 (vs. its ~C$345 high) is mispriced relative to a $4,000 gold backdrop and should trade back above C$300 as the market recognizes its cash flow, as of August 2026.
He says AEM's underlying business is so strong that even if gold drops $500/oz the shares should keep rising, since gold appears to be holding at the $4,000 level month after month.
He places Agnico Eagle in his preferred bucket of top-tier gold names (alongside Franco-Nevada and Wheaton), the same high-quality producers Rick Rule flagged as a major disconnect between price and fundamentals.

Kovacevic's top silver point: producers like First Majestic are trading as if silver were $40 even though the metal is near $60, and he expects the stocks to lift once quarterly balance sheets come in.
He disclosed he bought AG near $78, says a mentor always told him when First Majestic gets to seven or eight, buy it, and AG went to $44 before falling back to ~$22.
First Majestic is his silver-producer leg, paired with drill-hole speculation in names like Silver Pony for the five-or-ten-bagger upside.

Kovacevic groups Seabridge with Snowline and Aben Gold as the kind of gold developers and small-cap explorers he follows alongside high-quality producers like Agnico Eagle.

Kovacevic cites Franco-Nevada (alongside Wheaton and Agnico Eagle) as one of the top-quality gold royalty and streaming names that have been crushed and that Rick Rule flags as materially mispriced.

Kovacevic groups Wheaton with Franco-Nevada and Agnico Eagle among the highest-quality gold plays that have been hit and that he sees as a major disconnect between price and fundamentals.

Top takeaway Top takeaway: Kovacevic frames higher gold and silver as a 'when, not if', seeing $8,000-$10,000 gold and $160-$200 silver (a 40:1 ratio to gold) driven by de-dollarization and what he calls untenable global debt levels.
He argues a ~20% broad-market correction would trigger another leg higher in gold, silver and the broader commodity complex, since equity outflows and continued de-dollarization both flow into hard assets.
His biggest single-sector call: lithium (and First Phosphate) are the most mispriced areas in global equities, citing Bernstein's projection of battery demand rising from 1.8 TWh (the prior year) to 5.7 TWh by 2030 (~20% CAGR) and DLE reaching 20-30% of supply by 2030.
His portfolio playbook: hold top-tier producers and royalty/streaming names (FNV, WPM, AEM, AG) trading as if gold and silver were far lower than they are, and speculate in drill-hole plays (Silver Pony, Super Copper, Aben Gold) for multi-bagger upside.
He flags the current tape as a 'spring and summer of discontent' in which over-leveraged speculators are forced out by rebalancing and tourist flow is likely to return later, and argues investors should sit in cash to wait for those setups.

Top takeaway Jesse Day hosts Commodity Culture, prompting Kovacevic through silver, gold, the broad market, copper, lithium and phosphate, and noting First Phosphate CEO John Pasalequa will appear on a follow-up episode.