Is LITHIUM the Next Major Bull Market? Supply 'Just NOT There' as Prices FLY
Summary
Lithium carbonate prices have risen roughly 170% year over year, and the guests expect a durable floor near $20,000 per ton.
Grid-scale battery storage built with lithium iron phosphate batteries has become lithium's fastest-growing demand sector, alongside EVs.
EMP Metals advances its Saskatchewan brine project through a demo plant using DLE (direct lithium extraction — recovering lithium from brines chemically rather than by evaporation).
A hub-and-spoke model of smaller commercial facilities targets cash flow at far lower capex than the two-billion-dollar mega-projects proposed elsewhere.
Canadian federal and provincial critical-minerals programs provide EMP with non-dilutive funding supporting its demonstration facility and future scale-up.
Karl Kottmeier's takeaways
- Top takeaway He argues lithium prices have swung sharply higher on EV and energy-storage demand while supply is 'just not there', and sees roughly $20,000 per ton as a sustainable long-term floor even if 2022 highs are not revisited.
- He says lithium demand is growing about 12% annually through 2035 and frames direct lithium extraction (DLE) as a tremendous new way to source lithium given how difficult big projects are to bring online.
- He dismisses waiting for an acquisition after the 'lithium winter', arguing companies must keep advancing their own projects and that EMP's bite-sized hub-and-spoke capex lets a buyer get involved at a far lower price point than a $2 billion decision.
- He contends EMP is positioned for a significant rerate as it advances further than competitors in Canada's largely unknown lithium jurisdiction, backed by strong Saskatchewan government support and prospective non-dilutive federal financing.
Paul Schubach's takeaways
- Top takeaway He says EMP is aggressively advancing its demonstration plant with Saltworks Technologies, deploying improved DLE flow sheets targeting better costs and recovery rates, with the wellhead-connected, automated plant generating operations data for its first-of-its-kind commercial facility.
- He notes EMP has been approved for provincial and federal government funding — including BC and Saskatchewan grants plus Natural Resource Canada and NextGen Manufacturing support — reflecting rising Canadian critical-minerals prioritization.
- He lays out second-half 2026 catalysts: completing and commissioning the demo plant, detailed Phase 2 engineering announcements, updated project economics, phase-two financing initiatives, and potential resource expansion through drilling.
- He describes bringing over a decade of potash solution-mining and brine-extraction experience in Saskatchewan to the lithium industry.
Jesse Day's takeaways
- Top takeaway As host he frames the segment around lithium carbonate's roughly 170% year-over-year price run as of June 2026 and cites an Oregon Group view that grid-scale storage is now lithium's fastest-growing demand sector.