Josh Young: The Iran War, Massive Bull Run in Oil & How To Find 10x to 20x Opportunities
Palisades Gold Radio Jan 22, 2026
Summary
Iran geopolitical risk is mispriced: a Strait of Hormuz closure puts 1 to 20 million barrels per day at risk.
US shale economics have shifted: Continental halted Bakken drilling near $60 WTI, implying the industry needs $80 to $90 to ramp at scale.
Demand looks sturdy: election-year stimulus and above-consensus JODI readings should keep US oil consumption firm into 2026.
Avoid large oil producers and European services with Russia exposure; favor small, de-leveraging companies for 10 to 20x upside.
The Miller-Modigliani de-leveraging effect: paying debt from 4x to 1x EBITDA can re-rate equity multiples from 2x to 10x EBITDA.
Chris Wright's takeaways
- Top takeaway The speaker cites Chris Wright's joint appearance with Doug Burgum at a Louisiana LNG export facility opening as evidence that the Trump administration treats LNG exports as a 'crowning achievement' and is unlikely to restrict them as an energy weapon.
- Wright is grouped with Doug Burgum as the de facto energy ministers whose visible alignment with LNG expansion signals continued US export promotion rather than curtailment.
Harold Hamm's takeaways
- Top takeaway The speaker argues that Harold Hamm's Continental Resources stopping drilling in the North Dakota Bakken at roughly $60 WTI signals the US shale sector needs closer to $80–$90 a barrel to ramp up sustainably.
- Hamm is described as a 'big Trump administration proponent' involved in its energy planning, giving his Bakken pullback both operational and political weight in the speaker's cost-curve argument.
- The guest notes Continental was likely the lowest-cost operator in a moderate-cost field, so its decision to stop at $60 is framed as evidence of broader US shale underinvestment rather than a company-specific issue.
- Hamm's Bakken pullback is presented alongside Permian rig-count declines as evidence that production is rolling over and the medium-term US shale cost curve is materially higher than the current strip implies.