KE Report Craig Hemke Feb 2 2026
Summary
Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report argues the late-January silver sell-off of over $30 was a violent consolidation, not the end of the precious-metals bull run.
Hemke pushes back on the narrative that Kevin Warsh's Federal Reserve nomination is the real driver of the metals decline, pointing instead to month-end positioning and option expiries.
Producers Agnico Eagle, Newmont, and Kinross enter their next quarter with materially higher average realized selling prices, supporting strong fundamentals despite headline volatility.
Hemke frames gold as a stable unit against a depreciating dollar and urges long-term investors to separate conviction from short-term momentum trading.
Technical gaps in the GDX filled during the flush, with Comex option expirations and delivery cycles amplifying the institutional price action.
Key points on Agnico Eagle Mines
- Hemke singles out Agnico as a miner whose earnings are surprising him, noting the company now has no debt and is paying a strong dividend against the backdrop of recent gold and silver prices.
Key points on Kinross Gold
- Hemke mentions Kinross (alongside Agnico and Newmont) as a major miner whose profitability and dividend payouts have become striking against the recent gold and silver price backdrop.
Key points on Newmont
- Hemke cites Newmont as a major miner whose earnings and dividend payouts have become striking against the recent gold and silver price backdrop, even after the late-January 2026 sell-off.
Kevin Warsh's takeaways
- Top takeaway Hemke argues Warsh will not be more hawkish than Powell, expecting him to align with Trump and Bessent on running policy hot rather than restoring Fed credibility through rate hikes.
- Hemke expects Warsh to cut rates and says yield curve control and asset-side monetization remain on the table under the new Fed lineup.
Craig Hemke's takeaways
- Top takeaway Hemke argues the precious-metals bull market is intact and the late-January 2026 move is a consolidation period, consistent with the nearly two-year pattern of roughly 20% gold rallies followed by multi-month pauses.
- Hemke blames the sell-off on what he calls a 'silly misperception' that Kevin Warsh would be a more hawkish Fed chair than Powell, saying the dollar kept falling through the week and disproves that thesis.
- Hemke says he is a long-term investor, did not sell into the drop, and continues to buy and hold what he views as the best mining companies, juniors, and exploration names through the ups and downs.
- Hemke argues the dollar is the unit losing value rather than gold rising, pointing to roughly $38 trillion in U.S. debt and another $2 trillion expected that year as the structural driver behind higher gold and silver prices.
- Hemke distinguishes between large-cap miners and juniors, warning juniors have not been a great buy-and-hold strategy, and notes Q4 earnings based on roughly $55 silver and around $4,100 gold have not been fully priced into the GDX yet as of early February 2026.