KER QuickTake - Beaver Creek Takeaways, Technical Breakdown Across Gold, Silver, Copper & Energy

The KE Report Sep 30, 2026 33:07

Summary

Gold broke below its 50-week average while gold miner ETFs have not, and silver's key support sits near $54.

Record Beaver Creek attendance met slow markets, so investors need selectivity amid abundant funded stories.

Long-established, lower-grade resource holders look undervalued next to newer peers and a wave of asset spin-outs.

Copper futures keep setting highs while copper producer ETFs lag, and rare earths lost their 200-week average.

Post-conference M&A and relative strength favor cash-generative producers, while juniors still wait for fresh capital.

Top takeaway Fleck's headline takeaway from the September 2026 Beaver Creek conference is that there is no shortage of stories, capital or work programs: over 200 companies and roughly 1,800 attendees made it the busiest edition yet, and a wave of news flow runs through the rest of the year.
He argues the bigger risk for investors is being pulled into too many good-sounding stories, and wants portfolios to be more selective and more concentrated, favouring companies that have already made a discovery, are building something out, and have outperformed the market.
He plays a game of estimating a company's market cap after each meeting without knowing it, and came away thinking many of the junior developers he met were fairly valued, which means they need news to justify those valuations and drive the stocks higher.
He thinks several long-standing, mostly lower-grade companies that never rebounded with the market look undervalued versus their peers, and says he plans to bring some of them onto the show over the next few weeks.
He favours better-quality names for safety and as likely M&A candidates, pointing to companies that pulled back only 20% to 35% over the summer as showing relative strength; he does not expect money to filter down into juniors in the near term, though cash-rich producers will eventually go shopping.

Top takeaway The hosts credit Dana Lyons with calling the copper buy on the 2025 tariff-driven selloff, saying he told them he was starting to buy and that it proved to be a buy-and-hold opportunity.

Top takeaway Markwitz calls the September 2026 Beaver Creek conference the biggest yet, with over 200 companies and roughly 1,800 attendees, a packed schedule of meetings with gold, silver and copper developers, producers and royalty companies, and constant news flow in the week before and during the event.
After joint meetings with Fleck he came away thinking several companies were fully valued or even overvalued and need to backfill those valuations, while others looked undervalued relative to their work plans and defined ounces or pounds, a dichotomy he highlights.
He spotted at least six or seven companies at the conference either spinning out an asset, weighing a spin-out, or buying assets to spend later if they were taken over.
He is watching a handful of legacy companies, maybe three or four, with large, often bulk-tonnage resources whose economics have improved with higher prices, yet they trade at a fraction of peers that listed a year or three ago and have attracted the newer investor market.
Running the charts, he notes GDX has held above its 50-week moving average even though gold has not, that gaps from the August rally are being filled with a downside gap still open, and that GDX and GDXJ sit at oversold commodity channel index levels that marked prior turns, so he holds out for a rally, a correction and another bounce, ideally above 136.