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KER QuickTake - Summer Doldrums or Structural Shifts? Precious Metals, Copper, Oil

The KE Report Jun 18, 2026

Summary

Gold, silver, GDX, and SILJ have broken below their 200-day moving averages, and the hosts argue the intermediate-term trend has turned bearish.

The BPGDM (the share of gold miners in bullish point-and-figure uptrends) hit an ultra-rare zero reading, a contrarian signal that has since faded to neutral.

Over $2 billion Canadian of recently financed junior stock came free-trading in two weeks, adding sell pressure to an already weak tape.

Copper is the standout: near all-time highs in a textbook bull market, with equities yet to fully price the metal and hyperscaler demand.

Oil shows structural damage and depleted strategic reserves; the case made is for higher-for-longer prices even if Strait of Hormuz shipping normalizes.

Key points on Agnico Eagle Mines

  • The hosts cite Agnico Eagle among the highest-quality major gold producers that bottomed around October 2018 and have been running for roughly eight years, with some majors up 10x-30x over that span.

Key points on Alamos Gold

  • Alamos Gold is named by the hosts among the big major gold producers that bottomed in the fall of 2018 and have been in an eight-year bull run.

Key points on DPM Metals

  • DPM Metals (referred to as Dundee Precious Metals) is listed by the speaker among the highest-quality gold producers that bottomed around October 2018 and have run for eight years.

Key points on Wheaton Precious Metals

  • Wheaton Precious Metals is named by the speaker among the major gold producers that bottomed in the fall of 2018 and have been running for eight years, with some of those stocks up 10x-30x.

Cory Fleck's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Cory declares himself in the bearish camp on precious metals as of the June 18 recording, arguing the weight of indicators (BPGDM below 50, broken charts) shows this is not a bull market, though he has not sold all his positions and has tightened his portfolio and moved money into other sectors.
  • He highlights over $2 billion Canadian of newly free-trading stock from four-month hold expiries (C$622M across 57 companies last week, C$1.44B across 62 this week per CEO.ca) as downward pressure, especially on juniors.
  • He argues the gold bull did not 'just start' ā€” a decade in gold, eight years in the majors, three-to-four years in mid-tiers, two-to-three in developers/silver ā€” and worries the January parabolic top may have ended it, though he sees opportunities for a year to 18 months past the metals peak.
  • He expects a strong Q2 reporting season for gold and silver stocks (likely their second-best quarter ever) that could spark a bounce, and a fall rally after a boring summer, citing Jeff Christian's view of a pickup starting August-September.
  • On the Fed he sees roughly a 100% chance of a rate hike by year-end under Warsh, with inflation still high and no recessionary data, calling the neutral-to-hawkish Fed another bearish headwind for precious metals; on copper he is firmly bullish, seeing the copper market a year or two behind gold with stocks set to catch up, and on oil he is considering lightening up but leaning toward higher-for-longer alongside Schachter, Steffens, and Broderick.