Marc Chandler - The Dollar’s Peak, Metals Volatility, Next Week’s CPI and Jobs Data
The KE Report Feb 6, 2026
Summary
The US Dollar bounce may be peaking, with technical "outside day" patterns flagged as a potential reversal signal.
Gold's rise against fiat currencies is better read as dollar dynamics than a rejection of money itself, Chandler argues.
Dollar-hedged equity trades let investors strip currency exposure out of stock positions, isolating equity performance from FX swings.
The 'Sell America' narrative is shaping positioning across currencies and metals heading into a data-heavy week.
Upcoming US jobs and CPI prints are framed as the key macro catalysts that could shift dollar and metals outlook.
Marc Chandler's takeaways
- Top takeaway The guest argues the dollar's recent bounce is likely over, calling the index's stall just shy of 98 a lower high within a multi-month bear market and citing Friday's bearish outside-day reversal against EUR/AUD/CAD/NZD as the first sign the countertrend move has topped.
- On gold, he attributes the roughly $600 two-week surge in late January to geopolitics (specifically US threats against a NATO member) rather than fundamentals, and looks for a weekly close back above $5,000 to open a retest of the roughly $5,500 highs in Q1/Q2 2026.
- He calls silver underappreciated as an industrial and strategic metal, noting it became the key driver of solar panel prices near $121 in late January, and despite the deeper sell-off and shallower rebound he wants to see a test of $90 again before committing to higher prices.
- He flags a central-bank policy divergence from the Fed: he expects Japan to raise rates at least once in 2026, sees Australia hiking again in H1, notes the Bank of England's dovish 5–4 hold this past week pushed the next cut into April, and suggests Norway could cut rates again.
- He pushes back on the 'sell America' thesis, citing a BIS study to argue international investors hedged dollar exposure rather than sold US assets, and reiterates his long-term view that the dollar remains 'terribly overvalued,' with the Swiss franc the possible outlier already above fair value, favoring tight-fiscal/looser-monetary dynamics.