Mike McGlone: Gold Isn’t Safe In Upcoming Market Crash
VRIC Media Aug 4, 2026
Summary
McGlone argues the Fed is trapped — easing fuels inflation, hiking hurts the economy — so the next move is easing, and only when stocks fall.
The 5% yield on the long bond (30-year US Treasury) is the headwind capping gold, commodities, and crypto; he says stay underweight risk assets.
Gold's main rally is done — at $4,000 an ounce it is the most expensive versus Treasuries since the early 1980s — and $3,000 looks like support.
Overweight Treasuries is his call — TLT (an ETF of 20-year-plus US bonds) works like a put on the S&P 500 that pays you to wait.
Copper is the leading indicator: China's deflation and crowded bullish positioning point to a broad sell-off, with crude oil likely below $70.
Kevin Warsh's takeaways
- Top takeaway McGlone argues the Fed under Kevin Warsh is boxed in — easing would fuel inflation and push bond yields higher, while hiking would hurt the economy and put him at odds with President Trump — so the next Fed move will likely be to ease only once the stock market falls.
- He says Warsh came out 'swinging hard' in his first press conference making price stability the key focus, even though inflation, while starting to come down, remains above the Fed's target.
- McGlone adds that a modest stock decline is the ideal outcome for Warsh: 'stocks go down a little bit, poof, he doesn't have to hike rates.'
Darrell Thomas's takeaways
- Top takeaway The VRIC Media host presses the political contradiction in McGlone's reset thesis: if the market topples, would the government and Fed really sit back rather than use QE to protect the retirement-account wealth the administration touts?
- He steers the interview through mega-cap earnings risk, whether gold's pullback is a slow bleed or a top, and whether TLT is a swing trade or a long-term hold.