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More & More Signals Popping Up That Suggest A Pullback Is Near | Lance Roberts

Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money® Aug 29, 2026

Summary

Roberts expects a 3-10% S&P pullback in the next 2-3 weeks, citing slowing momentum, weak retail demand, and a current short-term sell signal.

Nvidia's $96B quarter (revenue +106% YoY) didn't shift the cautious stance — Roberts stays modestly underweight and would later rotate into hyperscalers.

Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks kept a rate hike on the table, citing 'not restrictive' financial conditions; September hike unlikely but possible by year-end.

A reported US-Venezuela 100-year oil-field lease could meaningfully boost US energy security and pressure OPEC, though execution and political risk remain.

Adam Taggart's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Argues that the most meaningful parts of life are quality relationships, time in nature, and being present with other humans — not financial benchmarking against staged social-media content.
  • Claims the strongest memories people form usually involve little or no money (neighborhood potlucks, walks with friends, wiffle ball), and that chasing a Ferrari is chasing a means rather than an end.
  • Advises viewers to regularly 'touch grass' — protect time in the week to unplug from the digital world and just be with other humans, framing it like an AI-style long-term productive investment.
  • Ties the point back to macro by noting how consumer-sentiment surveys get distorted by negative social-media noise, so people feel worse than their actual lives warrant.
  • Notes that even after buying a more expensive house, his goal is to create a low-cost gathering space for family and friends near hiking terrain, prioritizing experiences over things.

Mark Newton's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Default outlook is for choppier, more volatile trade between now and the midterm elections, including some sort of pullback, before a strong end-of-year rally that takes the S&P to 8,000.

Darius Dale's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Expects the Fed to 'flex' in the short term — possibly one rate hike, or even up to 50 bps by year-end — before pivoting into a fresh easing campaign.

Kevin Warsh's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Argued in his Jackson Hole speech that financial conditions are not restrictive at all — S&P profits up 20%, credit spreads near cycle lows, banks easing lending standards, stocks near highs, low volatility — giving the Fed wiggle room to hike if needed.
  • Maintained his 2% inflation target unchanged and said much of the recent inflation is transitory (oil prices, tariffs), with no September rate hike likely.
  • Wants markets to price fundamentals on their own rather than rely on Fed direction, putting him at odds with Scott Bessent's Treasury buyback operation that intervenes in the term-premium signal.

Scott Bessent's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Ran a short-term Treasury 'operation twist' — buybacks running September 4 through September 9 — aimed at pulling the term premium back toward fundamentals rather than letting basis-trade distortions push yields higher.
  • Acknowledged that the basis trade (about 50 hedge funds with roughly 10x leverage holding around 8.5% of the bond market) is artificially pushing up near-term yields and distorting the rate signal.
  • His intervention works against what Kevin Warsh wants — Warsh prefers clean, unpolished market signals, while Bessent is willing to put his thumb on the scale for near-term pressure relief.

Dr. Art Laffer's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Stays optimistic about the US economy, contrasting with guests who see signs of cooling like the Chicago PMI drop and downward non-farm payroll revisions.
  • Personally knows Kevin Warsh and thinks his tenure as Fed chair could last around 25 years, with potential to rank among the great Fed chairs of his lifetime.