Nomi Prins: We’re Forecasting $6,000 Gold - By The End Of The Year

VRIC Media Sep 29, 2026 30:38

Summary

The guest forecasts $6,000 gold by the turn of the year, calling recent Fed hikes and higher bond yields temporary.

August gold ETF inflows hit $18 billion, the second-largest month on record, and she reads them as mostly retail money.

Central banks are buying for collateral and control rather than yield, and are moving gold out of New York vaults.

She argues a debt crisis shows up as fewer Treasury buyers, with both the Fed and Treasury back in quantitative easing.

Inflation hinges on oil prices, so the Fed's quarter-point hike does little to change what households actually pay.

Top takeaway The host supplies the episode's demand data, noting that around $18 billion went into gold ETFs in August, the second largest monthly inflow on record, and asking who is behind the surge.
He frames the inflation debate around real rates, pointing to bond yields paying over 5% and arguing a 3.4% headline yield amounts to about a 1.6% real return on long-dated bonds.

Top takeaway The guest forecasts gold at $6,000 towards the end of 2026, and notes that even off its highs gold was up about 20% from a year earlier.
On US debt she argues the country is already in a debt crisis, which she says shows up as fewer and fewer buyers for more and more Treasury debt, and that the Fed and Treasury are both moving into quantitative easing or buybacks, with the Fed waiting for a crisis.
She calls the recent 25 basis point rate hike political posturing, arguing the inflation behind it is driven by oil and geopolitics rather than monetary policy, that a front-end hike does nothing to reduce the government's debt servicing cost, and that core CPI is only about 2.4% a year even excluding energy.
She argues central banks will not dump gold to buy Treasuries yielding over 5%, and that gold is being pulled back into home-country vaults and increasingly used as collateral, which she frames as a structural shift rather than a yield trade.
On producer economics she points to costs of around 1,800 to 2,200 in her estimates against gold at $4,300 to $4,400, and expects another round of strong quarterly reports from gold producers.

Top takeaway The host credits Dalio's book How Countries Go Broke with the episode's debt framing, summarising its argument that deeply indebted countries typically respond by defaulting, imposing austerity or inflating.
The host also cites a Dalio post projecting a debt crisis within the next three years, and the guest agrees that the US is already in one.