"Nothing Would Surprise Me" As Currencies Blow-Up & Metals Take Over | Ed Steer
Summary
Silver is in its sixth consecutive year of structural deficit. The Silver Institute pegs it near 46 million ounces, the tightest supply backdrop in years.
Open interest in $92 and $100 silver call options for October has surged to roughly 9,000-10,000 contracts, an unusually heavy bet on a non-delivery month.
SLV (iShares Silver Trust) short interest fell 23% in the latest report, the steepest single drop in years and a sign of commercial unwinding.
COMEX (main U.S. metals futures exchange) commercial shorts sit near record lows in silver. That setup has historically preceded major precious-metals rallies.
Steer warns a short squeeze could shift price discovery from COMEX and the LBMA (London Bullion Market) to Shanghai if bullion banks buckle.
Alasdair Macleod's takeaways
- Top takeaway The guest cites Macleod's column that day, agreeing with his argument that the death of the fiat currency system is now underway.
Ed Steer's takeaways
- Top takeaway The guest argues the major Western bullion banks face a Bear Stearns-style failure if silver blows through $100 and gold through $20,000, because the money simply does not exist to cover those short positions.
- He believes a confluence of unusual signals - a 23% drop in SLV short interest (the largest in a long time), a surge in October silver call options at $92 and $100 (each near 10,000 contracts, up from a few hundred), and commercial shorts near record lows - points to a major repricing of silver and gold by year-end.
- He warns that to save the bullion banks from collapse, authorities may shut the COMEX and LBMA and let Shanghai, as the largest physical producer/consumer hub, take over precious-metals price discovery.
- He points to the sixth straight year of a structural silver deficit - estimated around 46 million ounces by the Silver Institute - alongside stealth buying in silver equities (up 29% month-to-date and 7.18% year-to-date as of August 12, 2026) as evidence of an imminent supply crunch.
- He argues that nothing would surprise him from Western governments, the SEC, the DOJ, or the CFTC if the banking system is threatened, and that physical metal in hand is the only protection against a great taking or fiat-currency collapse scenario.