Precious Metals Warning: Gold Targets $3,600 While Bitcoin Turns Bullish | Chris Vermeulen
Sprott Money Oct 6, 2026 22:44
Summary
Technical analyst Chris Vermeulen argues gold has broken down, targeting $3,600 — possibly $3,100 — if support near $3,900 gives way.
An October 1 exhaustion gap (panic selling ending a move) in bonds suggests falling yields and a TLT bounce, though the bond downtrend remains.
He sees money rotating into equities and Bitcoin, which stage analysis (reading trend via moving averages) says has turned bullish, targeting about $95,000.
He maps Nasdaq upside with Fibonacci measured moves (about 3% near term, 14% potential) that an Anthropic IPO could ignite, pulling capital from metals.
His lesson: a strong fundamental story never guarantees price — gold once fell 45% and silver 72%, each taking 13-plus years to recover.
Craig Hemke's takeaways
- Top takeaway As host, Hemke frames the setup: a strong August for gold and silver reversed in September as rate-hike odds rose and the dollar rallied, and he presses Vermeulen on which metals levels must hold into year-end.
- He floats the scenario of the 10-year yield reaching 6% and Bessent becoming a buyer of everything above 5%, and asks whether a break below the roughly $3,900-$3,960 gold low would be the alarm bell.
- He warns October is historically a volatile month and expects a doozy, and notes he and his subscribers got through the silver spike with a cost basis below $20, stressing diversification.
Chris Vermeulen's takeaways
- Top takeaway Argues gold has broken down below its 150-day moving average in a stage-3 topping phase and, as of the early-October 2026 recording, targets $3,600 and possibly $3,100 if gold closes below support near $3,900 for a day or two.
- Sees money rotating into equities and Bitcoin instead of precious metals, with the QQQ set for about 3% and then up to roughly 14% more upside on bull-flag Fibonacci targets, in a move he warns could be an exhaustion rally before the market peaks.
- Says Bitcoin has entered a new bull market on his stage analysis, having bottomed with bullish price action and returning money flow, and targets about $95,000, roughly a 9% gain from the recording date.
- Reads TLT's October 1 exhaustion gap as setting up a bounce to around 80-81 as yields pull back, but calls it a bounce within a downtrend and says he would not trade it.
- Warns against holding through dormant decades, citing gold's 45% fall and 13-year recovery and silver's 72% drawdown, and says he runs a 5-to-12 ETF rotation portfolio, sharing every position with subscribers.