"We're Already in Deficit”: The Critical Minerals Crisis No One's Talking About - Amanda van Dyke

MiningStockEducation.com Mar 22, 2026

Summary

Amanda van Dyke argues global metals and minerals output must at least double again just to sustain today's economic level.

Mining faces falling grades and a discovery drought, and she says copper and silver are already in global deficit.

China's roughly $1 trillion, 25-year investment bought control of about 60% of the metals supply chain and 90% of some minor metals.

US price floors like the MP Materials rare earth deal are project-specific financing guarantees, not a new global benchmark price.

She avoids the EU after its 40% mining capacity loss, favoring the US, Latin America, and Africa for permitting and rule of law.

The guest calls Ivanhoe an incredible copper play, citing its DRC location, strong management, and a very low-cost, high-grade mine with impressive economics.

Top takeaway The guest argues global metals and minerals output has doubled over 25 years and must at least double again just to maintain current living standards, while mining faces lower grades and a discovery drought.
She contends the world is already in deficit for copper and silver, with rare earths tipping into deficit, and that scarcity historically breeds trade and shooting wars.
She says China invested roughly $1 trillion over 25 years to control about 60% of the global metals and minerals supply chain and around 90% of some small critical metals like rare earths, tungsten, and antimony.
She believes US price floors such as the MP Materials deal are a necessary short-term measure and expects more government-backed deals, while cautioning they distort markets and are not a long-term solution.
She sees global recession as the biggest bear case for critical minerals and prefers investing in the Americas, Latin America, and Africa over the EU, which has lost 40% of its mining capacity amid anti-mining policy.

Top takeaway The host frames the interview around market state, government incentive pricing, deglobalization, and the bear case for critical minerals.
He presses on how investors should treat the $110 NdPr price floor across projects lacking US deals, and whether EU weakness creates investment opportunity.