Ready For A Bear Market? Most Investors Aren't | Ted Oakley @OxbowAdvisors
Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money® Sep 24, 2026 1:02:48
Summary
Guest Ted Oakley calls the current economy a one-trick pony — pull AI out and the headline growth numbers weaken fast.
Oakley pegs the top ten S&P companies at 41-42% of the index, so owning the index is not real diversification.
Materials and energy are Oakley's two top sectors — pipelines especially, for irreplaceable infrastructure and cash flow paid on volume.
He defines every bond outcome by maturity, holding three-month to three-year Treasuries, because long bond funds have lost money five years running.
Liquidity is the edge: Oxbow's best years followed the 1987, 2003 and 2009 lows, while unprepared investors and first-time advisors risk capitulating at the bottom.
Adam Taggart's takeaways
- Top takeaway Taggart argues an AI-led selloff would hit 'safe' index funds harder than the dot-com bust did — endorsing Oakley's point that the top 10 stocks are 41-42% of the S&P — leaving index holders far more exposed to technology than they realize.
- He lays out a midstream renaissance thesis: US export growth, Gulf political risk after the Iran war, and a 100-year Venezuela oil lease should drive an infrastructure boom benefiting pipelines and service companies.
- He warns equity exposure is now highest among the oldest investors — some holding 80-90% in stocks by Oakley's account — so those with the least time to recover are taking the most risk.
- He proposes a webinar with Oxbow on couples' legacy transition planning, arguing the uninvolved spouse faces a painful but avoidable transition when the managing spouse can no longer continue.
- He discloses he is an Oxbow client and tells DIY investors to follow a veteran bear-market playbook — or hire a manager who has navigated one — rather than improvise through their first bear market.
Chance Finucane's takeaways
- Top takeaway Ted Oakley says the new book arguing that investors over 65 hold too much stock and should shift toward cash flow and settle their portfolios down was co-written with Oxbow CIO Chance Finucane.