Recent Market Breakout Running Out Of Steam? | Lance Roberts
Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money® Aug 15, 2026
Summary
Despite a strong breadth surge and retail buying comeback, Roberts raised cash because a 2-month sideways consolidation is not yet a confirmed correction.
Roberts still expects a 3-5% pullback before new highs, but compressed volatility ahead of the midterms makes risk-reward unfavorable.
The portfolio rebalance trimmed Microsoft, Google, and Amazon back to target weight after earnings rallies, and swapped BlackRock for Goldman Sachs.
Roberts sees the next Fed move as a cut, not a hike, citing cooling wage growth and weak retail sales, disagreeing with colleague Darius.
Open question for AI bulls: trillion-dollar capex may pay off, with hyperscaler free cash flow projected to recover meaningfully in 2028 and 2029.
Adam Taggart's takeaways
- Top takeaway Adam argues AI investment is real but ROI is still TBD — he is not ready to call it a hoax like guest Ed Zittrain, yet warns near-term returns may fall short of expectations.
- Adam argues the current market backdrop looks healthy on breadth and retail buying, but he expects a 3-5% pullback (a 1-2% retest of breakout support) rather than the 10-15% drawdown some bears expect.
- Adam argues bearish 'fake revenue' narratives impair investor returns; he pushes listeners to follow flows and fundamentals rather than fear-driven stories.
- Adam argues capitalism works because it is a 'profit and loss economy' that produces loss signals — removing those signals, as in socialism, destroys incentives.
- Adam argues personal prosperity takes courage and risk-taking beyond break-even saving, illustrated by his parenting lesson about rewarding good behavior.