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SILVER Back to Triple Digits THIS Year? 'Dramatic' Move Coming

Commodity Culture Jun 30, 2026

Summary

The guest argues silver's 50% slide from January's $120-plus peak is consolidation inside a bull market, with triple digits possible this year.

Six consecutive deficit years and a 10-to-20-year mine development timeline mean silver supply cannot quickly respond to rising demand, the guest notes.

Governments now treat silver as strategic: US stockpiling, Russian central-bank buying, Saudi ETF purchases, and Chinese export controls tighten available supply.

A first PEA (Preliminary Economic Assessment — early-stage mine economics) gives Kootenay's La Seguera a $763M after-tax NPV and 41% IRR at $50 silver.

High-grade Columba drill results, including 98 metres at 200 g/t (grams per tonne) silver, feed a 60,000-metre program and a year-end resource update.

Key points on Vizsla Silver

  • The host raises Vizsla Silver only as a jurisdiction-risk data point, noting it tragically ran into cartel-related issues in Mexico when discussing whether Kootenay's areas face similar problems.

Key points on Kootenay Silver Inc

  • James McDonald says the PEA released in June 2026 on the La Seguera deposit shows an after-tax NPV of USD$763M and a 41% IRR using a $50/oz consensus long-term silver price, transitioning Kootenay from explorer to developer.
  • La Seguera hosts 60Moz measured and indicated plus 17Moz inferred, and a 10,000m drill program starting in fall 2026 targets a gap in the resource shell that McDonald estimates could add another 10-20Moz, potentially followed by a resource update and PEA refresh.
  • Columba carries a 54Moz inferred maiden resource at 284 g/t from a year before the interview; the company is roughly halfway through a 60,000m expansion drill program, with a resource update expected around end-2026 that could justify a second PEA.
  • March 2026 step-out holes at Columba's D-vane returned intercepts including 34m at roughly 500 g/t, 17m at nearly 650 g/t, and 98m at over 200 g/t (true width about half), per McDonald, with about 60% of current ounces in that zone and all zones open.
  • McDonald says the La Seguera PEA outlines a 14-year mine life producing over 6Moz annually in its first five years, and argues the market has not yet recognized the value of the four-deposit pipeline, which he says is well financed.

James McDonald's takeaways

  • Top takeaway McDonald argues silver will return to triple digits, with a reasonable chance of it happening before the end of 2026, and sees the drop from January-February's $120 spike to just under $60 as consolidation at the beginning of a multi-year bull market, not its end.
  • He contends the supply side cannot respond quickly: few primary silver mines exist, most output is byproduct, and new discoveries take 10-20 years to reach production, so deficits keep the price strong while silver follows gold.
  • He reads the early-2026 spike as the market waking up, driven by institutional and some central-bank buying, and expects silver to settle far above its 2025 band, by analogy to the post-2002 bull that lifted silver from a $4.50-5.50 band to a lasting ~$20 band.
  • On silver as a strategic metal, he says government moves (US stockpiling, Russian central-bank purchases, which he calls the possible bell that rang, a Saudi SLV stake, and China's export controls) will not reverse, though he declines to predict acceleration.
  • He believes silver miners are already earning strong cash flows near $60 and the sector has turned; institutions are in a show-me phase awaiting a confirmed bottom, and he expects general-market money to follow a few more quarters of producer cash flows.

Jesse Day's takeaways

  • Top takeaway The host frames the interview around the disconnect between six consecutive years of silver supply deficits, per the Silver Institute, and the price pullback, and says he agrees with McDonald's read that the macro backdrop is unchanged.
  • He lays out governments treating silver as strategic — roughly $12B for US critical-mineral stockpiling under Project Vault, Russian central-bank silver purchases, a Saudi central-bank position of close to a million SLV shares, and China's export controls — and presses on Mexico jurisdiction risk, citing Vizsla Silver's cartel-related issues.