Skip to main content

Silver to $500? | Michael Oliver - Momentum Structural Analysis

The Deep Dive Aug 11, 2026

Summary

Silver's correction arrived earlier than expected (March-April was anticipated) and ran deeper, yet 90%+ of the damage occurred in the first few trading days.

The guest expects silver to reach $300-$500 and 'go berserk' if it breaks out of the current congestion zone.

Markets that misprice often overshoot in the opposite direction to compensate — too-low prices can produce explosive upside moves.

Michael Oliver's takeaways

  • Top takeaway The guest's central call is that silver will reach $300-$500 and then 'go berserk' once it breaks out of the current congestion pattern, framing the setup as an overcompensation after an extended mispricing.
  • The corrective break arrived far sooner and was deeper and more protracted than he anticipated - he expected a March-April shakeout following a sharp break, but the low formed in the first week of February after the January 30th collapse.
  • He argues that 90% plus of the downside damage in gold and silver occurred within the first handful of trading days of the break, suggesting the bulk of the correction is already behind the market as of the as-of date.
  • He believes silver is still in the overcompensation phase - markets that stay too low for too long tend to 'explode' rather than normalize - and explicitly states silver 'is still in that process.'
  • He ties the upside thesis conditionally to price action: a move up out of the current congestion is what would unlock the berserk move, with the $300-$500 range as his target band.