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SILVER 'Won't Stop' at $500, Shorts Will 'Get Killed': Michael Oliver

Commodity Culture Sep 12, 2026 41:40

Summary

Silver's pullback from its August 5th breakout looks like a pause — Oliver expects a push back over $70 to resume the uptrend.

Silver faces a structural supply-demand deficit and just exited a 10-year relative-value box vs. gold — revisiting the 1980 ratio implies a multi-fold move.

The gold miners/gold ratio (XAU) just broke a 12-year compression band; even revisiting the old 18% low would double miners' value against gold.

Oliver ties the next leg in precious metals to a sovereign T-bond crisis — money-supply growth and looming central-bank monetization are the real driver.

Crude trades cheap against money supply and the Bloomberg Commodity Index; the broader commodity complex is finally joining gold's uptrend.

Key points on Newmont

  • Oliver argues Newmont returned to its highs "in a heartbeat" after the August 5th gold turn-up, even though gold itself only retraced halfway back — evidence he cites of large-cap money quietly rotating into big miners.
  • He notes Newmont popped off a base around $95 on August 5th and is now congesting just below its highs rather than getting repelled.
  • He characterizes Newmont as one of two "blue chip" miners that major asset managers — who cannot hold futures, bullion ETFs, or juniors — are buying as they rethink the traditional 60/40 stock/bond mix.
  • Oliver calls this rotation "only just begun" and says a break above the recent congestion zone could draw more institutional buyers into the stock.

Key points on Wheaton Precious Metals

  • Oliver describes Wheaton as the biggest-cap silver miner and one of the largest royalty streamers, and says it returned to highs "in a heartbeat" after the August 5th turn-up while gold only got halfway back.
  • He points out Wheaton is currently congesting right below its highs instead of pulling back.
  • He groups Wheaton with Newmont as the two large "blue chip" miners attracting institutional money that is rotating out of stocks and bonds.
  • He suggests the rotation is early and that a fresh breakout could pull in additional large fund managers.

Michael Oliver's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Oliver's central thesis is that a T-bond crisis — which he calls the biggest monetary crisis in a century — will force central banks into heavy money-printing, driving gold and silver sharply higher and triggering a major rotation out of stocks and bonds.
  • He argues silver has been artificially capped around $65 and that its breakout versus gold from a roughly 10-year relative-value range points to dramatic upside, with his prior $300–$500 target possibly undershooting.
  • He points to the XAU miners-versus-gold ratio breaking out of a 12–13-year range as early evidence that institutional money is rotating into gold and silver equities.
  • He believes the August 5th turn-up marked a durable intermediate-term low across silver, gold, and miners, and that the four-week pullback since the recent high is wrapping up rather than reversing the uptrend.
  • He pushes back on the common view that rate hikes hurt gold, citing 1975–1980, 2002–2008, and 2022–2024 as periods when gold rallied alongside rising Fed funds rates.