Sky-High Earnings Expectations Courting Disaster? | Lance Roberts
Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money® Jul 4, 2026
Adam Taggart's takeaways
- Top takeaway Adam argues that when the AI build-out eventually busts, the trigger is more likely to sit on the supply side than the demand side — limited land, permits, local politics and component shortages stopping construction short of what analyst models assume.
- He relays Darius Dale's warning that a 1998-style correction, on the order of the roughly 15% drop of mid-1998, is uncomfortably likely within the next couple of quarters if the Fed keeps tightening, while Dale still sees 2027 as potentially strong for risk assets.
- Adam catalogs the week's 'pins' for the AI trade: Microsoft seeking to use Chinese AI models such as DeepSeek, companies rehiring workers because AI tools proved too buggy, and the Blackstone data-center pullout.
- He concedes an AI bubble will eventually burst because 'you don't know where the too-much line is until you pass it,' but argues timing is unknowable, so investors should watch for early warning signs rather than exit now.
- Adam raises the 'sandwich generation' squeeze — supporting aging parents and kids while saving for retirement — and urges early planning: find a senior benefits specialist, join subsidized-housing waitlists before the need arises, and have kids apply for overlooked scholarships.