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SSR Mining’s Hod Maden: Incredible Gold Project, Awkward Deal

The Deep Dive Feb 9, 2026

Summary

SSR Mining's Hod Maden project in Turkey is fully permitted, with AISC (All-In Sustaining Cost — what it really costs to produce an ounce) of $590/oz and a $1.7B NPV.

The host argues the project's economics are muted for SSR shareholders because the company does all the work but keeps only 40% of profits.

The updated technical report targets 189,000 gold-equivalent ounces annually over a 13-year mine life, with go-forward capex of $910M.

Royal Gold's $3.7B purchase of Sandstorm Gold and Horizon Copper included a competing 30% non-operating interest in the same Hod Maden asset.

At $4,117/oz gold, the project's NPV rises to $2.4B and IRR to 52%, though SSR's minority share still caps per-share upside.

Key points on SSR Mining

  • The host criticizes the deal structure: SSR must do all the exploring, developing, constructing, and operating for only 40% of Hod Maden's profits, calling it a lot of work for a minority slice of the pie.
  • SSR acquired up to a 40% interest in Hod Maden from Lydia Mines in 2023 for $270 million (a mix of upfront cash and milestone payments); an initial $120 million payment bought a 10% stake and made SSR the operator, with the remaining 30% to be earned by the first anniversary of commercial construction.
  • The new technical report outlines strong per-ounce economics: cash costs of $535/oz and AISC of $590/oz, implying margins above $4,000/oz at current gold prices as of February 2026.
  • At base case ($3,100 gold) the project shows an after-tax NPV of $1.7 billion and an IRR of 39%; bumping the gold price 30% higher to $4,117/oz lifts NPV to $2.4 billion and IRR to 52%, with roughly 91% of cost estimates considered firm.
  • Hod Maden is fully permitted and located in Turkey near SSR's existing Coppler mine, targeted at an underground operation averaging 159,000 ounces of gold and 21 million pounds of copper annually over a 13-year mine life.

Steve Hyland's takeaways

  • Top takeaway The host frames Hod Maden as one of the highest-margin, lowest-capital-intensity undeveloped copper-gold projects globally but underscores that SSR only captures 40% of the upside despite doing all the operational heavy lifting.
  • The host stresses that, even with the awkward deal structure, about 91% of the new technical report's cost estimates are firm (awarded contracts or based on recent tender submissions), making the economic assessment unusually credible.

Jordan Lutz's takeaways

  • Top takeaway The analyst walks through Hod Maden's standout per-ounce economics as of February 2026: cash costs of $535/oz and AISC of $590/oz, delivering margins above $4,000/oz at current gold prices.
  • He lays out the project scale: a fully permitted underground copper-gold operation in Turkey near SSR's existing Coppler mine, averaging 159,000 ounces of gold and 21 million pounds of copper annually over a 13-year mine life.