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StoneX, Vincent Deluard: I Expect a Major Equity Correction This Fall

Mining Network Aug 28, 2026

Summary

Vincent Deluard argues fiscal authorities have captured the Fed — 6–7% deficits at low unemployment act as permanent stimulus, blocking recessions.

He reframes the 1990s Great Moderation as luck — low debt, peak boomers, deflationary China WTO shock — and warns Kevin Warsh will disguise financial repression.

Deluard calls the US 'one giant bet on AI' and warns a doom loop — rising yields, falling Mag-7 valuations, shrinking cap-gains tax revenue — could spark an autumn equity correction.

His five-year advice: strip long-duration Treasuries from a 60/40, replace with precious metals, mining, energy, commodities; real yields of 2.5–3% now justify a small long-duration re-entry.

Gold is his core reserve asset; silver is 'gold on steroids'; copper is a supply-constrained industrial; oil is a geopolitical hedge even without a bullish price call.

Key points on Aris Mining Corp

  • The guest mentions Aris Mining as Colombia's largest gold producer, co-founded by Frank Giustra.
  • Giustra's role in co-founding Aris Mining is cited as the in-country expertise he brings as Copper Giant's largest backer and shareholder.

Kevin Warsh's takeaways

  • Top takeaway The guest argues Kevin Warsh correctly identified that central bankers trapped themselves through heavy forward guidance, and credits Warsh's silence as a more humble attempt to avoid that same trap.
  • The guest criticizes Warsh's communication as poor, saying he has been aloof, claims commitment to the inflation target without defining it, and effectively runs a secret target.
  • The guest claims Warsh was appointed by Trump and Bessent to keep borrowing costs low and engineer financial repression, and must therefore pretend to do the opposite of his real mandate.
  • The guest frames Warsh as trying to avoid the Powell and Yellen pattern of locking himself into promises that became hard to break.
  • The guest concludes Warsh's stance is philosophically right in principle but poorly implemented in practice.

Alan Greenspan's takeaways

  • Top takeaway The guest recalls Greenspan appearing on a TIME magazine cover titled The Maestro, emblematic of the 1990s cult of central bankers.
  • The guest notes Greenspan had a bit of an ego and personally credited his own rate decisions for the productivity-driven boom of the 1990s.