TF Metals - Gold & Silver Support Levels, Fed Policy, and Sector Sentiment
The KE Report Sep 28, 2026 22:39
Summary
Rising real yields and a stronger dollar — not deteriorating fundamentals — explain the month-long gold and silver pullback after August's rally.
This week's JOLTS, payrolls, and PCE (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) releases will shape whether the Fed hikes again in four weeks.
Mining equities and sector ETFs outperform falling bullion because second-quarter earnings showed producers absorbed higher energy costs without severe margin damage.
The guest argues a stock-market crash would not lift gold on its own — central-bank liquidity responses after liquidity events do.
Silver holding above $48 for nearly a year defies its historical post-spike collapse pattern, which the guest calls constructive for the long term.
Craig Hemke's takeaways
- Top takeaway He argues the month-long gold and silver pullback reflects rising real rates and a rallying dollar rather than broken fundamentals, with gold only about 5% off its lows.
- He contends a stock-market crash would not lift gold as a safe haven — in his experience gold responds to the central-bank liquidity that follows liquidity events, as in 2008.
- He sees silver holding above $48 for nearly a year as a constructive long-term sign, unlike its collapses back toward the teens after the 1979 and 2011 spikes.
- He says mining equities and sector ETFs are outperforming bullion because second-quarter earnings showed producers absorbed higher energy costs without severe margin damage.
- He expects a debt-driven 'max pain' point that will force the Treasury to expand its small yield-curve-control bid for the long bond.